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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (33491)	11/11/1998 12:22:00 AM
From: Claude Cormier	Respond to of 94695

Thank you very much for your comment David. I'll submit them to my friend and see what he has to say.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (33491)	11/11/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

DP, check out the long bond chart, from the larger wave 4 flag from January to april, we completed wave 3 top around 10/7 and we just had stretchy rubber bandy guitar string pullback that bottomed last Thursday, we should now be entering WAVE 5!!!!!! This top may be more important than anybody is thinking. Interestingly the bonds went below 30RSI for the first time since 7/17 last Friday and while most believe that low bond prices are good for stocks, the relationship may have reversed, as it has in Japan for years - deflation. bb

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (33491)	11/12/1998 8:50:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

David, Re: Big Picture EW count A nice chart here: the-privateer.com 1. >>'66-'82 was a wave 4 supercycle correction Agreed 2. >>8/82-8/87- Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle 5 8/87-5/88- Cycle Wave 2 5/88-1/94- Cycle Wave 3 1/94-12/94-Cycle Wave 4 Agreed. The boost that the market got since 12/94 sure looks like a 5. 3. >>12/94-5/96-Primary wave 1 of Cycle 5 5/96-7/96- Primary wave 2 I'm with you 4.>>7/96-1/97- Intmdt. 1 of Primary wave 3 1/97-4/97- Intmdt. 2 4/97-8/97- Intmdt. 3 8/97-11/97-Intmdt. 4 11/97-7/20/98-Intmdt. 5 [END OF Primary 3] Aha! Why can't the Primary 3 end on 8/97? There are numerous occasions where a 3 of a strong trend is divided into two equal parts. Then 7/96-3/97 is the 1st part of Primary 3, and 5/97-8/97 is the 2nd half, thus making the 8/97-11/97 correction the Primary 4 (Even on a semi log scale it is bigger then the '96 correction which was Primary 2). Now the Primary 5 starts on 11/97 - The wave you marked as Intermediate 5 of Primary 3, and has a small Intermediate 5 (6/98-7/98) because of outside interference by the world markets (and economy) that cut that rally short of the Dow 10,000 mark. Comparing the spring '97 and summer '97 corrections looks to me like comparing apples to oranges. 5. I understand that you expect the C of 4 to be quite a move (Dow 8000 neighborhood?), and common sense says that the market wouldn't be able to recover from yet another blow. Retest of the lows spells crash and burn to me. 6. The trend line that starts on 12/94 (see the link above) held through all the corrections, was broken last August, and the market corrected right back to it from below. 7. The down trend from 7/98 to 10/98 had a clear 5 waves pattern, and the recent surge looks to me like an abc : the a extended with the help of Mr. Greenspan, and both a and c having an inner abc pattern. Conclusions : 1. Despite the magnitude and power of the rally since Oct 8th, I would still call it a bear market rally until I see new SPX or OEX high. 2. As long as the July high isn't surmounted, I'd call the 7/20-10/8 decline Primary 1 of Cycle 1 of Supercycle 1 of Grand Supercycle a. 3. I couldn't find any major flaws in your count, and the small ones mentioned above only challenge it. International events and markets, as well as economic indicators I've mentioned on the Big Picture thread suggest to me that we're over the cliff's edge and only bouncing on the way down, but your prediction of a Supercycle end early next year is plausible. Please let me know if the alternate count I suggested above is flawed or if it makes sense. Regards ATG