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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fortinwit who wrote (26194)	11/12/1998 6:19:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

F., n fact, if 1998 comes out, according to the SIA, at down 11% (10.8% to be precise), then 1999 is still below 1997 in total production (by about 3%). In $, not units. Semi earnings may be based upon $. Equipment companies need the units for capacity buys. Plus, there's been more recent 300mm news. Once 300mm starts (or if 300mm starts), neither $ nor units will be necessary for the Equipment stocks to do very, very well. FWIW, Ian.

To: Fortinwit who wrote (26194)	11/14/1998 11:00:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

F., Unless you're Alan Abelson with a pen name, it appears that you've been plagiarized in the last paragraph by Abelson. ;-) From: interactive.wsj.com November 16, 1998 Up & Down Wall Street, Part 2 Semiconductor stocks have been getting more than a whirl lately. In part, it reflects an interesting phenomenon: Wall Street's determination to discount a recovery from a recession it has yet to recognize. In part, too, putting the chip stocks back in the chips were some tangible positives. For one thing, Intel was absolutely gushing last week with how business was humming and how bright the future was shaping up. And, what's more, it had the earnings to prove it. Somehow that doesn't square with our own saturnine view of computers and all their workings, so we checked with someone in the technological know. He confessed he was surprised, too, since he's not at all convinced that the PC outlook, for one, is very encouraging. However, he sighed, "Intel is run by lawyers," so the company's public statements are comparatively dehyped, and heed should be paid to them. Well, we reminded him, IBM, as the result of its endless antitrust suit, also was run by lawyers, and their reign coincided precisely with the extended period of the company's decline. (We can only assume that the lawyers had their epaulets removed when present management took over.) Further, we can't help wonder if even Intel isn't misreading a seasonal, or at least a transient, upturn as an enduring trend. The world economy could roll over in '99, and so could a lot of favorable predictions. The other bullish item came from the Semiconductor Industry Association, which forecast a sparkling 9.1% rise in chip sales next year. We might have cheered, too, except we had the dim feeling that the trade group was a little wanting in the prophecy department. So we checked back and discovered that this time last year, the SIA, as it's fondly known to its members, forecast a 17% growth in sales for 1998. Alas, in fact, chip sales this year will be down a not-inconsiderable 11%.