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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: accountclosed who wrote (36068)	11/12/1998 11:14:00 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Antoine, I have been reading this thread for, lo, these five or so months, skeptically, but with respect due to obvious high calibre of brainpower of thread regulars. Still, when I read posts about tulipmania, I questioned historical accuracy, because tulipmania, like other real bubbles, had a frenzied quality that bidding up the prices of Dell, Intel, and so on, lacked. Now these last few, I agree, have a certain manic frenzy that looks like the real thing. A true bubble, in my opinion, loses all connection to reality because those buying and selling have no real knowledge of how the experts in the field would value the item. In other words, they see others making money, become greedy,fear that they will miss out, and bid wildly on things they know nothing about, in the hope that they will, by some mysterious process, become rich, like others they know and envy. Kind of like cargo cults. As you are no doubt aware, the Pacific Islanders saw American planes landing on landing strips during WWII, carrying all kinds of wonderful goods, and decided that what was needed was a landing strip of their own (kind of like Field of Dreams, "if you build it, they will come.) They would hack out landing strips in the jungle, and build fake planes as decoys. I suspect that the frenzy to buy internet stocks is similar irrationality, and also something like the purchase of rock concert ticket stocks by people who simply want to scalp. But, in my observation, the true nature of a bubble is that it is of short duration. Which is why I have been skeptical about claims about Dell, Intel, and all. They may be overpriced, but I don't think they are bubble stocks. These new ones, well, time will tell, won't it? And if we are right, it won't be long. CobaltBlue