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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor who wrote (3781)	11/13/1998 12:55:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 5676

I don't know what we are doing over there. If the objective in the first conflict had been to remove Sadam -- we should have done that. If not, how in the world do we think we can dictate what kind of weapons they produce. The policy has been a loser. President Clinton has rattled the sabre one time too many. Now they have to do something to save face or appear flimsy. I hope there aren't a lot of people killed whatever happens. It's unlikely the people responsible for fomenting the problems will be inconvenienced in the least. People decry clandestine attempts to remove leaders, but here is were money could probably be well spent. Why not just send a few arms to his enemies and let them take care of business? Perhaps there'd be nobody better, but perhaps not. OTOH -- Why not just leave the guy alone? Let the countries over there protect their own interests. We sell them enough weapons to do the job. We could always send assistance if they needed it. I guess that's all academic now. Article raises a lot of concerns. There are lots of things that can go wrong. Let's pray that our "intelligence" is good this time around and things go smoothly. War is nasty. I look forward to the elimination of it. Re: Nuclear weapons -- I expect they will be used again, don't you? Seems like just a question of when. I am not a pessimist, but I know what it says in John's first epistle, too. The whole world is under the power of evil, until it is destroyed. Not sure about the apocalyptic references. Much in Revelation I do not understand. Let's pray that the suffering is minimized.

To: gregor who wrote (3781)	11/13/1998 8:39:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Hey Gregor... Interesting article, but purely a work of pseudo geo-political analysis. There are so many holes in that analysis I don't know where to begin. However, the predominant issues are that Hussein is not a fool. He may, or may not, have chemical or biological weapons stashed away somewhere. But if his whole goal were to take out the nation of Israel, I suggest that his invasion of Kuwait was a stupid way of maintaining the element of surprise. Nope.. no one but a fool messes with a nation that openly is acknowledged to possess at least 10, if not upwards of several hundred nuclear devices, so attacking Israel with WOMD (weapons of mass destruction... god!! I'm sick of that term), would be tantamount to suicide. Nope... Saddam's problems are primarily internal. His "elite" republican guards demand a price for their loyalty, even though they may also be terrified by him. He has to maintain his impression of being the leader that will protect their priviledged lives, while scaring the local populace to death over possible US strikes and continuing to submit to his will. Should he lose face, which is what the US is about to inflict upon him, his supporters may find themselves in quite a bind. They may not like Hussein and his iron-handed rule, but they have priviledges the rest of the population do not enjoy, and should Hussein lose power, the popular backlash by an oppressed population could become overwhelming. The problem this time is that the Clinton administration appears set to force a complete retreat on Hussein's part, or face being militarily "neutered". Primary targets will be air defense systems, airfields, munitions, and those beautiful palaces. Take away those toys that provide Hussein his internal prestige, and his supporters will likely try to exit.. stage left (via Jordan). But the removal or downfall of Hussein will result in more problems, namely that 55% of Iraq's population is Shi'ite, while the rest is Sunni. And you have some 20,000 Turkish soldiers in N. Iraq right now, chasing Kurdish rebels. So who is going to rule this mish-mash of cultures who are not very fond of each other in the first place?? It's complex, but Hussein will not attack Israel unless he sees himself being forced from power by the US. So the trick is to do enough damage to neutralize Hussein's power, but let his own people take care of him over the course of time. Regards, Ron