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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (80095)	11/13/1998 8:17:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

AS, Well, if DELL is able to grow earnings by 60% next year, which will put DELL's earning number at above 1.80 instead of current number of 1.43, well, then my 12-month target price on DELL will be 110-120, instead of 75-80, then I will issue an 'agressive buy' rating on this issue. But in most likely case, it won't happen. And I am more concerned about a global market recession next year than most of the people on this thread thinks. But DELL does have a unique trading pattern. First, the management team always remains the most bullish on future outlooks, which often results in unbelievable whisper number. And face it, DELL is one of the very few stocks that trades mainly on whisper numbers. You can add Softie to this list, but the latter always has hidden revenue and earnings, so the REAL PE for MSFT is really much lower than its current 50s. According to my calculation, Softie is traded at trailing PE of less than 40, which was able 50% as compared with MD as of yesterday. Without the DOJ bullshit, I will be buying Softie like there is no tomorrow at current price. And I believe that CSCO has the best management team. DELL needs to learn how to mange expectations so that a one penny upside surprise is rewarded positive, as in the case of CSCO. Back to DELL, the street and the traders trade DELL purely on the earning number and the whisper number dominates. When the whisper number calls a 20% Q over Q earning increase on a mature company, you know that it's crazy game to the extreme. And to makes things worse, most of the posters on this thread was even more bullish than that. You can not find a better time to short an issue when the euphoria is reaching such crazy level. I was longing DELL like there is no tomorrow when it dipped to low 40s, but got mostly out of the issue at low 60s and closed most all of my naked puts as of yesterday morning, and turned naked short at 72 two days ago. I refuse to pay more than 55 for DELL right now, and that's why I sold a bunch of leap 55 naked puts today and will add to my position in the later sessions as DELL penetrates 60. On the other hand, I am taking the full advantage of the downfall partly because I am too familiar with the unique trading pattern of DELL. At last, I believe that DELL should report 1.5-1.55 earning for FY 2000, that should give DELL a 12-month fair value at 75-80. If so, more than 50% of the current DELL investors will be disappointed and probably try to find greener pasters. That will again be a great entry point for longs. L!