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To: xiaxia who wrote (296)	11/14/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: Michael G. Potter	Respond to of 10713

Your revenue assumptions seem rather extreme. I wear glasses (near-sighted) and am usually comfortable with technology. I'm going to wait quite a while to see what the long-term effects really are before I mess with my vision. Both my parents wear glasses. In general, the older you get the more likely it is that you'll need glasses. I think that the chance that my folks would have this operation is pretty small, and I think the same applies to many older people. Once you get out of the industrial nations, the amount you could charge for an operation decreases. You need to take the NPV of future revenue, not just a gross number. Then I'd risk adjust it more that you did. If the industry really was as lucrative as you're assuming, there will be more competition and VISX would get less share. Michael