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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (8610)	11/15/1998 3:13:00 PM
From: Ross	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 44573

Don, this may be of interest if your looking for historical relationships: *************************** From: PAST PRESENT FUTURES In recent updates, we stressed the likelihood that the initial decline in the stock market would be followed by a significant secondary rally, which could offer a potential major selling opportunity. Over the past several weeks, the market has experienced a violent rally, which so far has retraced 82% of the decline off the July 20 high. As we have stated previously, following the 21 final tops since 1885, the first declines have been followed by secondary rallies, which on average have retraced 66%. However, the retracements during these secondary rallies were as small as 45% and as large as 98%. In 9 of 21, the retracements were at least 70%. Based upon what we have seen so far, I would say that the geometry is adequate but not outstanding for the resumption of a bear market. What makes our current time frame interesting however, is that this "secondary rally" is carrying price higher into our ideal cycle high dates based upon the 60 and 30-year cycles. These highs were established on November 9, 1968 and November 29, 1938. In other words, cyclically, we are entering our first valid time frame for entering short positions. Historically, the secondary rallies have averaged 1 month, 12 days. Adding this time period to our October 7 low would project a top on November 19. This fits in nicely with the completion of our cycle highs. Over the next week, we will be watching for a sell pattern to develop which would allow us to enter short positions. However, I am maintaining a flexible attitude with regard to the long-term prospects for this market. If the 60 and 30-year cycles do not turn prices lower by the end of the year, our next major cycle completions will not hit until September 1999.

To: donald sew who wrote (8610)	11/15/1998 3:20:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 44573

Don I did a looksee of the SPX and posted it here...without any noise just a hard look...please see... as for MU. i'd pass on this for a short...here's why..it built a base support at 33-34, it then flew up 15 boxes ato a 52 week high of 48...it just reversed down 3 boxes to 45...if it moves back up and prints 49 that would be a continuing BUY signal...The RS just turned POSitive on the stock..very very important...so the down side here is nil...of course if we selloff 1000 points, well then...you know...:>] On AMAT it's at the top of the chart...heavy resistance at 39-40, i think it will reverse down now from the highs and could go to 33-32.. I think Don you'd be better off hitting the Big Caps from the top...If Alan G does not cut on Tues, i would buy puts in the OEX and DELL....and as you know i own DELL...<gggg>>>or sell calls... In fact I'll buy the Nov OEX puts, and the DEC DELL puts for a nice trade "short violent and sweet".....i doubt we could stay stagnent after TUES either way.... I own DELL at 66 1/2(trading acct)...so i can do what ever I choose...I own Nov Options on DELL that could be dead...but i'll make it up on the down side...this stock should rebound Mon/Tues...to fill the gap to 69..but Tues could be bomb blast either way....can't wait...i got ants in my pants(as usual)...:>} should be interesting...