Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31887)	11/17/1998 8:56:00 AM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Respond to of 95453

FOCUS-Oil slips after U.S. calls off Iraq strike (Changes dateline, updates price) Monday November 16, 6:24 am Eastern Time LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Oil prices retreated on Monday after Iraq stepped back from the brink of military confrontation with the United States. The United States halted a big military buildup in the Gulf on Sunday after accepting an unconditional Iraqi offer to resume U.N. weapons inspections. Brent crude for January delivery was trading 22 cents off at $12.10 a barrel at 11.20 GMT. U.S. light crude for December delivery was down 35 cents at $13.23 a barrel in after-hours trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. ''The market has given up the increases in price from early last week when the crisis was intensifying,'' John Russel, managing director of Bangkok-based Petroleum Economics Ltd. Traders noted Washington remained ready to strike Iraq if Baghdad failed to keep its word and allow unhindered access for arms inspections dismantling Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said that there was no guarantee there would be time for diplomacy if Iraq once again defied U.N. resolutions on the work of the inspectors. ''The U.S. has the mandate from the U.N., so the markets could be surprised by an attack without warning if things go wrong again,'' said brokers GNI in London. Annan said complete compliance was the best way for Iraq to achieve a lifting of global sanctions that have been in place since its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Oil experts monitoring Iraq crude exports for the United Nations as part of an oil-for-food programme remained in place in Iraq during the latest crisis and loadings went ahead virtually uninterrupted, shipping sources said. A total of 1.8 million barrels from Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan and 3.4 million barrels from Mina al-Bakr in the Gulf loaded in the last two days and more loading is now in progress. But the threat of U.S air strikes stopped some oil loading as scheduled, the sources said. Bulgaria's Rosbulneft loaded only 400,000 barrels instead of its scheduled 1.9 million barrels, citing safety concerns for its decision. James Brown, Asia energy analyst at Merrill Lynch, said while the latest crisis was over, it did not ensure there would not be another in the future given Iraq's history of disrupting the weapons inspection programme. ''I am not convinced that this present conflict is over. It leaves the oil market on edge until such a time as this whole question is resolved.'' The price slide brings into the spotlight once again high global oil stocks and efforts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to bolster oil prices, which are more than $6 lower than year ago levels. OPEC meets in Vienna next week to weigh up whether to cut output further or to try to enforce greater compliance with the existing cuts and extend their duration. Russel, forecasting a global stock build in 1999 of 900,000 bpd following an estimated 1.5 million bpd build in 1998, said OPEC must cut output again or risk single digit priced oil in 1999. GNI in London commented: ''OPEC really ought to show the market something new at this month's meeting to try to provide some confidence.'' Prices in dollars per barrel: Nov 16 Nov 13 (1120 GMT) (close) IPE January Brent 12.10 12.32 NYMEX December light crude 13.22 13.57

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31887)	11/17/1998 9:00:00 AM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Respond to of 95453

NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The New York Times reported the following stories on its front page Tuesday: * The United States, its allies and past defenders of Iraq said Monday that they did not expect President Saddam Hussein to cooperate with U.N. weapons inspectors, and that if he broke his promise it would set off a military response without a Security Council debate. My Comments: If history has a way of repeating itself, being short at these levels and at this time is very risky. Obviously, that depends on how quickly the US will act upon Iraq's next defiance.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31887)	11/17/1998 9:18:00 AM
From: tdl4138	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

<Don't you guys "get-it"> Slider...we get it...and those of us that are still holding some positions from last year...really "got-it"... My point is that, while I agree the oils are cyclical in nature...you're too quick to be optimistic...So what if Japan has a new package...if no one uses it...it won't be of much value... HAL @ $20?...When was the last time you looked at a long term chart. For years, HAL never saw $20. We were still using oil during that time frame...but the industry just chugged along...profits were minimal...and so was the price action for the stocks involved. Were they great buys for the long term investor? Not if you had to hold for 5 years before they spiked... This is a cycle...but you have no conception as to how long it will last...and for how long anyones investment could be "dead".. Sure, oil demand will improve...thats a given...but the time factor is the unknown. I would advise anyone looking to invest in this sector to wait until the fundamentals actually turn...or to trade very nimbly in the meantime. Your approach is to look at the scenario...and (possibly correctly) assume that the fundamentals should be at that turning point. My approach is to be certain that the fundamentals are in place...and not just keep guessing.