I'm holding my gold too. But on that paragon of investment news, CNBC, tonight they were talking about money flows. Apparently there's $100 billion sitting on the sides in cash and money market, waiting for a "signal" (of what, I don't know). If they decide this bear is over, they'll make it so! IMHO people who are going to make big money in this market are going to do it on the long side. In retrospect, the past 2 1/2 months were one of the buying opportunities of a lifetime! People who made the big bucks (I don't include myself among them, BTW) had the ability to say to themselves "I'm in Vegas. The shooter is ugly (no fundamentals) but Jeez is he hot! I'm going to double then triple my betting level and press my wins as long as he's rolling" (And, of course, walk away when his roll ends. There's ALWAYS time to do this!).
I mean, zum Beispiel, I picked a little Internut portfolio on 11/14/98 and tracked it. Here's how it's done:
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Portfolio 9/14/98 - Tech 11/8/98 - Internut[Edit] - Value - [New]
Basic
Daily Change
Portfolio Performance
Symbol Current
Price Purchase
Price/Date Shares
Held Tax
Cost Current
Value Portfolio
Change
AOL 83.750 70 11/14/98 200.00 $14,000.00 $16,750.00 $2,750.00 19.64%
BCST 53.500 51 11/14/98 100.00 $5,100.00 $5,350.00 $250.00 4.90%
EBAY 147.500 123.938 11/14/98 100.00 $12,393.80 $14,750.00 $2,356.20 19.01%
INKT 153.625 124.25 11/14/98 100.00 $12,425.00 $15,362.50 $2,937.50 23.64%
MSPG 58.750 52.25 11/14/98 100.00 $5,225.00 $5,875.00 $650.00 12.44%
XCIT 53.938 49.438 11/14/98 100.00 $4,943.80 $5,393.75 $449.95 9.10%
YHOO 190.125 168 11/14/98 100.00 $16,800.00 $19,012.50 $2,212.50 13.17%
Totals: Internut $70,887.60 $82,493.75 $11,606.15 16.37%
I mean, the Internuts overpriced on 11/14/98, right? Apparently not. Another example: picked a Tech portfolio on 11/8/98 and tracked it. Here's how that's done.
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Portfolio 9/14/98 - Tech 11/8/98[Edit] - Internut - Value - [New]
Basic
Daily Change
Portfolio Performance
Symbol Current
Price Purchase
Price/Date Shares
Held Tax
Cost Current
Value Portfolio
Change
CIEN 16.188 17.125 11/06/98 250.00 $4,281.25 $4,046.88 -$234.38 -5.47%
CBXC 39.625 34.875 11/06/98 100.00 $3,487.50 $3,962.50 $475.00 13.62%
EX 20.688 10.5 11/06/98 1,000.00 $10,500.00 $20,687.50 $10,187.50 97.02%
ITWO 27.313 21.313 11/06/98 250.00 $5,328.25 $6,828.13 $1,499.88 28.15%
PMCS 56.875 47.813 11/06/98 100.00 $4,781.30 $5,687.50 $906.20 18.95%
PSQL 11.438 9.25 11/06/98 400.00 $3,700.00 $4,575.00 $875.00 23.65%
VTSS 34.000 33.75 11/06/98 100.00 $3,375.00 $3,400.00 $25.00 0.74%
XLSW 27.250 24.875 11/06/98 250.00 $6,218.75 $6,812.50 $593.75 9.55%
Totals: Tech 11/8/98 $41,672.05 $56,000.00 $14,327.95 34.38%
34.38% isn't too bad since 11/8/98.
My point is that while it may be a bear market, anyone who didn't have the nerve to go with the crazy flow (I'm in this category), or who invested in contrarian issues (such as myself, when I bought gold,) really cost themselves BIG bucks in profits. All this, of course, IMHO. And yes, I do think gold will eventually rise and the market fall. But I'll bet less money will be made shorting the market when it falls and being long gold, than a reasonable investor would have made in the past 2 1/2 months had he gone long. I.....er.....don't sound too bitter,do I?......
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