SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : DoubleClick Inc (DCLK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kevin G. O'Neill who wrote (433)11/20/1998 12:34:00 PM
From: Platter  Respond to of 2902
 
Silicon Valley: Net Stocks: Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop

By Suzanne Galante
Staff Reporter
11/20/98 10:36 AM ET

SAN FRANCISCO -- When the air finally comes out of Internet stocks, will it drag down the rest of the market?

It's a question that affects even the investors who have soberly refrained from the bacchanalian surge in Internet stocks in recent weeks. To most of those investors, the rapid rise of Net stocks to levels often impossible to value smacks of speculation -- the kind of speculation that can send shock waves through the market when it all comes crashing down to Earth.

This time, investors and analysts say, the impact of any tumble in the Internet sector will be limited. Take recent IPOs EarthWeb (EWBX:Nasdaq) and theglobe.com (TGLO:Nasdaq), which caught the limelight last week when their stocks rose several times over on their first days of trading. Since then, they've plummeted in relative silence. EarthWeb is down 45% from its high of 85 1/16 on Nov. 13, and theglobe.com is down 57% from its high of 97 on the same day.

Most fund managers had written off the latest round of Net rallies before it started, so most will shrug it off when it ends. "The Internet stocks didn't save us or bring us out of the quagmire," says Jay Ferrara, who manages the Principal Preservation PSE Tech 100 fund. "They don't drive the direction of the U.S. stock market."

True, some of the industry bellwethers that institutional investors like to hold are rallying as well. America Online (AOL:NYSE) is up 95% since Oct. 8, while Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) is up 76% and Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq) is up 75% -- each shattering the highs they set in July before the subsequent market selloff. If they started to tumble again, "They would be able to weigh down the techs," says an analyst who asked not to be identified.

Outside of technology stocks, the impact would be small. "Even if this bubble does pop," the analyst says, "it's still a pretty small sector."

Calling the top of a speculative rally is tough, but many agree that nothing is likely to douse these hot stocks for some weeks. In the meantime, the sector can only continue to feel good about the holiday season. Expectations of strong revenue from online shopping during the coming holidays have powered the gains in most of the Internet stocks.

So high have those expectations risen that the pinprick that finally bursts this bubble could come after the holidays, no matter how strong online sales are. "Everyone is expecting an e-Christmas," says a hedge-fund manager who asked not to be identified, "but if it doesn't follow through, that will bring some selling in."

Even if this rally extends into next year, it's unlikely to last long beyond that. The growth rates that have made many Internet stocks attractive to some investors -- with revenues doubling or tripling each year -- will start to slow down. "As we get into next year," says Michael Wallace, an analyst at Warburg Dillon Read, "the comparisons are going to be tougher."

<Picture>
<Picture>

For more info on institutional holders of these stocks, as well as financial statements and earnings estimates, please see the Thomson Company Reports.

<Picture>
<Picture><Picture><Picture: Sponsored by Datek>
See Also

SILICON VALLEY
Visions of Sugarplums and Net Stocks
11/18/98 2 PM

SILICON VALLEY ARCHIVE
<Picture>

<Picture: E-annuity. Invest online now.>  © 1998 TheStreet.com, All Rights Reserved.



To: Kevin G. O'Neill who wrote (433)11/22/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: ayahuasca  Respond to of 2902
 
DON'T HOLD THAT SECONDARY!

By Peter D. Henig
Red Herring Online
November 20, 1998

If IPOs are suddenly smelling cash, secondary offerings are not far behind, as two Internet companies prepare to offer a second round of shares to the market.

Inktomi (INKT), the Internet search and caching firm, will offer 3 million shares to the market in its first secondary offering since going public in June, when it sold 2.2 million shares at $18 each in a monster debut.

The company itself will offer 300,000 shares, and certain stockholders and company insiders will offer 2.7 million, now that their 180-day lockup period is over.

At the same time, DoubleClick (DCLK), the Internet advertising solutions company that's regarded as the market leader in its space, has also just filed its intentions to do a secondary offering of 2.5 million shares.

Analysts approve
Neither of these secondary offerings should be regarded as foolish or surprising moves.

"It's smart of them to do it, especially when their valuations are high," says Dana Serman, Internet analyst with Schroder & Co. "They suffer very little dilution and they get to raise a ton of cash."

In fact, Mr. Serman contends that it is unlikely that these offerings will even dilute the value of their stocks.

"If investors feel that the $400-500 million raised, when put to work, could improve the company's bottom line, that could outweigh the extra number of shares being put out on the market."

Rather than have a short-term oversupply, or overhang, of available stock that could be offered on the market after the lockup period has ended, companies typically will sell such shares in one fell swoop, generally to institutional investors.

"It benefits the company as much as it benefits the institutions who are trying to establish a position in these stocks without bidding up the share price," says Ryan Jacob, portfolio manager with The Internet Fund. "These names are volatile and very thinly traded, and that much stock being sold, if it's not executed in orderly way, could create problems."

And this may just only be the beginning. Keith Benjamin, Internet analyst with BancBoston Robertson Stephens says he expects to see more secondary offerings, "given the current display of interest." And when we ask whether they are a necessary evil in this high-growth Internet environment, Mr. Benjamin replies, "They are only evil if they don't work out."

Secondaries' second wind
The interesting thing is that secondaries had taken a breather right along with the lousy market for IPOs.

Investors had remained shellshocked during September and October following the market's panicked 29 percent selloff, and except for Broadcom's offering (BRCM), secondary issues seemed nonexistent. This is in stark contrast to earlier in the year when Lycos (LCOS), Preview Travel (PTVL), Sportsline USA (SPLN), N2K (NTKI), and other Internet plays all sought secondaries one right after another.

Now, with DoubleClick's secondary to sell an additional 2.5 million shares of stock beyond the 16.5 million it currently has outstanding, "it looks like we've got a market here all over again," says John Fitzgibbon, editor of the IPO Reporter.

Given a recent price of approximately $34 per share, DoubleClick is hoping to raise about $85 million for the company.

Its underwriters, Goldman, Sachs & Co.; BT Alex. Brown, Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette; and Salomon Smith Barney, were granted a 375,000 share overallotment option, which if exercised would provide the company with another $12.8 million.

But the unusual thing about DoubleClick's secondary offering is that none of the insiders are selling; according to Mr. Jacob, all of the shares are being offered by the company.

"That's rare," says the portfolio manager. "Inktomi is more normal; it's a mix."

It's especially rare, given that insiders are usually clamoring to cash out some of the shares they had so dearly longed for prior to the company's IPO -- perhaps garnering a little extra pocket change for some pre-holiday online shopping.

"When stocks run up like thunder, insiders try and cash out so that their wives can have their fur coats for Christmas," says Mr. Fitzgibbon. "Or maybe their girlfriends a Porsche."