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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Margaret Mateer who wrote (57831)11/19/1998 9:58:00 PM
From: ftth  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 58727
 
Question for anyone: Regarding AMZN:
If a person is a medium term (couple months) trader, why buy long stock here? When a stock moves as far and as fast as AMZN, Deep, Deep In the money calls trade barely above intrinsic value. This provides a unique situation because of the magnitude of the move. Jan 75 calls can be had for a fraction of a point above intrinsic value.You can essentially have 2:1 leverage (compared to long stock)for about a point. That's less than the margin interest you'd pay to have a similar situation with the stock alone for 2 months. The delta on the Jan 75's is very close to 1 so it trades point for point with the stock.

Note: same situation doesn't exist for put buyers because the stock is recently off its highs.

Am I missing something, options gurus? (other than if everyone did this it would probably end up bringing the stock down because the buying of long shares would dry up, which would probably cause the mo-mo's to bail since mo has gone away)

dh



To: Margaret Mateer who wrote (57831)11/19/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 58727
 
Margaret,

Now that makes sense. Thanks

I have confirmed with my old collegues in the steamship biz, that they see no improvement in exports for the next 6 months, but project an increase of 10-15% in imports. That sure wont help the trade deficit.

Just a tidbit in export rates. The cheapest rate from the west coast to HongKong for wastepaper is now around $500 per 40' container. That doesnt even cover the loading and unloading costs. By the way wastepaper is one of our largest exports in terms of volume of containers.

seeya



To: Margaret Mateer who wrote (57831)11/19/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 58727
 
Peggy: check out Marty Armstrong's new article:

princetoneconomics.com (read "Panic of 1998 and Global Liquidation")

Bottom line: if the SPX cannot close in NOV above 1157.50, then expect a big
decline in Dec. Of course, the PEI people called the top. And they have an explanation
for the big rise in SPX.