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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robnhood who wrote (21539)	11/20/1998 3:54:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Deceit is to say something which you don't do to write something which you don't know and that is speciality of self styled prophets of doom and voodoo chartists--tell them stop this mockery and start selling ice creams-- This market correction from 2028 to 1320--which you all missed you saw it coming and lost it-- low to high has exposed them like they were exposed in Oct 97 that these are destructive mantras.. these guys you follow religiously don't know nothing about TA or about Global economy---that is deceit- KTEL AOL YAHOO AMZN is a sector bubble go short it and get yourselve crushed we say buy puts as they break- cool and intelligent..But you guys fail to differentiate between AOL and CSCO or INTC or GE that is your mistake and you keep on thinking that KTEL or AOL can break the market no it would not- the forth coming correction will only lead to better distribution..and more logical vlauations for internets.. Markets have excesses and pains on both sides, internets are absolutely a farce and a dream which might not come true but if tomorrow you bring this sector down to reasonable valuations for you AOL at 80 pre-split is still expensive, the concept of compounding the concept of growth and the concept of discounted cash flow is not very well understood by the prema bears of this world, when bears were touting 5300 as your levels and were thinking that INTC or CSCO or IBM or MSFT are still expensive at 70 48 104 83- just five weeks back on that eventful evening was that not deceit-- I tell my thread kill anything which is based on hype but market has excesses on both sides up and down and I tell you with housing starts like what came yesterday no deflation is possible and with world trade progressing the way it is global deflation is a far cry.. this is not 1929 and you guys seem to have lost your bearing when you talked on your thread the BD economy is going to have an impact on global markets the day I read that I thought geez these guys want to see market down because you want to see it down. Look at the data below I don't want to take you through it- will you call this latest data as basis of global deflation, that is what your gurus have been selling and alongwith them the voodoo chartists.. I was telling them clearly the economy is strong the numbers are good and strong economy brings good numbers these TA guys without knowing anything about Europe say CAC 40 or DAX will be weak the day they write this we see unprecedented rally in CAC and DAX-- the world deflation will not come Japan is not like US their is no consumer demand therefore rate cuts in Japan have been so useless the housing market their is dead the infested loan portfolio is 45% of the total portfolio and it is now turning the corner, imagine if in 18 months Japan turns around as it would what will be the impact on global economy, the world is on a binge of reconstruction and development, you guys have unfortunately all got it wrong... Total world imports and exports are concentrated amongst 30 countries of the world a 20 % drop in activity in ASEA which is integral part of the world only impacts world trade by .3%-- by the way the interest rate cut by FED was long overdue - go back to my posts in my opinion in view of low inflation the real rate was at historic highs- the break down of unemployment and inflation relationship has now been formalized under the garb of asset inflation threat to world economy, the US real rates were required to be down and that is exactly what has happened now you don't worry you people will soon start worrying about a meltdown from inflationary threats so far it was all deflation but anyway why you guys should worry you need the market to be down and at nay cost, that will not happen until IDEA thread is up and functioning on SI-- your newly converted disciples on every thread except few reasonable threads did a mockery of TA go and tell them stop this mockery and start selling ice creams-- Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 1997 (Billion dollars and percentage) Rank EXPORTERS Value (f.o.b.) Share Change Rank IMPORTERS Value (c.i.f) Share Change 1 United States 688.9 12.6 10 1 United States 899.2 16.1 9 2 Germany 511.7 9.4 -2 2 Germany 441.5 7.9 -4 3 Japan 421.1 7.7 2 3 Japan 338.4 6.0 -3 4 France 287.8 5.3 0 4 United Kingdom 307.2 5.5 7 5 United Kingdom 280.1 5.1 7 5 France 266.8 4.8 -5 6 Italy 238.9 4.4 -5 6 Hong Kong, China 208.7 3.7 4 7 Canada 214.4 3.9 6 retained importsa 48.0 0.9 0 8 Netherlands 193.5 3.5 -5 7 Italy 208.6 3.7 1 9 Hong Kong, China 188.1 3.4 4 8 Canada 201.0 3.6 15 domestic exports 27.4 0.5 0 9 Netherlands 177.1 3.2 -4 10 China 182.7 3.3 21 10 Belgium- Luxembourg 155.5 2.8 -4 11 Belgium- Luxembourg 167.6 3.1 -2 11 Korea, Rep. of 144.6 2.6 -4 12 Korea, Rep. of 136.6 2.5 5 12 China 142.4 2.5 3 13 Singapore 125.0 2.3 0 13 Singapore 132.4 2.4 1 domestic exports 72.4 1.3 -2 retained importsa 79.8 1.4 0 14 Chinese Taipei 121.9 2.2 5 14 Spain 122.7 2.2 1 15 Mexico 110.4 2.0 15 15 Chinese Taipei 113.2 2.0 12 16 Spain 104.3 1.9 2 16 Mexico 112.5 2.0 23 17 Sweden 82.4 1.5 -3 17 Malaysia 78.6 1.4 0 18 Malaysia 78.7 1.4 0 18 Switzerland 75.8 1.4 -4 19 Switzerland 76.1 1.4 -6 19 Australia 65.8 1.2 1 20 Russian Fed.b 65.7 1.2 -5 20 Brazil 65.7 1.2 15 21 Australia 63.2 1.2 4 21 Sweden 65.2 1.2 -2 22 Thailand 58.2 1.1 5 22 Thailand 64.5 1.2 -12 23 Austria 56.9 1.0 -2 23 Austria 63.2 1.1 -6 24 Saudi Arabia 55.2 1.0 -3 24 Russian Fed.b 48.0 0.9 11 25 Indonesia 53.4 1.0 7 25 Turkey 46.8 0.8 10 26 Brazil 53.0 1.0 11 26 Poland 42.0 0.8 13 27 Ireland 52.4 1.0 8 27 Indonesia 41.7 0.7 -3 28 Denmark 48.5 0.9 -5 28 Denmark 40.6 0.7 -10 29 Norway 47.7 0.9 -4 29 India 40.6 0.7 9 30 Finland 41.0 0.8 1 30 Ireland 39.1 0.7 9 Total of abovec 4805.0 88.1 3 Total of abovec 4749.0 84.9 2 Worldc 5455.0 100.0 3 Worldc 5600.0 100.0 3 aRetained imports are defined as imports less re-exports. bData exclude trade with the Baltic States and the CIS. Including trade with these States would lift Russian exports and imports to $86.6 billion and $65.7 billion, respectively. cIncludes significant re-exports or imports for re-export. Appendix Table 2 Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade (excluding European Union intra-trade), 1997 (Billion dollars and percentage) Rank EXPORTERS Value (f.o.b.) Share Change Rank IMPORTERS Value (c.i.f) Share Change 1 European Union (15) 823.0 19.7 3 1 United States 899.2 20.8 9 2 United States 688.9 16.5 10 2 European Union (15) 768.2 17.8 2 3 Japan 421.1 10.1 2 3 Japan 338.4 7.8 -3 4 Canada 214.4 5.1 6 4 Hong Kong, China 208.7 4.8 4 5 Hong Kong, China 188.1 4.5 4 - retained importsa 48.0 1.1 0 - domestic exports 27.4 0.7 0 5 Canada 201.0 4.7 15 6 China 182.7 4.4 21 6 Korea, Rep. of 144.6 3.3 -4 7 Korea, Rep. of 136.6 3.3 5 7 China 142.4 3.3 3 8 Singapore 125.0 3.0 0 8 Singapore 132.4 3.1 1 - domestic exports 72.4 1.7 -2 retained importsa 79.8 1.8 0 9 Chinese Taipei 121.9 2.9 5 9 Chinese Taipei 113.2 2.6 12 10 Mexico 110.4 2.6 15 10 Mexico 112.5 2.6 23 11 Malaysia 78.7 1.9 0 11 Malaysia 78.6 1.8 0 12 Switzerland 76.1 1.8 -6 12 Switzerland 75.8 1.8 -4 13 Russian Fed.b 65.7 1.6 -5 13 Australia 65.8 1.5 1 14 Australia 63.2 1.5 4 14 Brazil 65.7 1.5 15 15 Thailand 58.2 1.4 5 15 Thailand 64.5 1.5 -12 16 Saudi Arabia 55.2 1.3 -3 16 Russian Fed.b 48.0 1.1 11 17 Indonesia 53.4 1.3 7 17 Turkey 46.8 1.1 10 18 Brazil 53.0 1.3 11 18 Poland 42.0 1.0 13 19 Norway 47.7 1.1 -4 19 Indonesia 41.7 1.0 -3 20 India 33.9 0.8 3 20 India 40.6 0.9 9 21 South Africa 30.3 0.7 6 21 Philippines 37.3 0.9 9 22 United Arab Emirates 26.5 0.6 2 22 Norway 35.4 0.8 -1 23 Poland 26.0 0.6 6 23 South Africa 31.6 0.7 5 24 Turkey 25.4 0.6 10 24 Israel 30.6 0.7 -3 25 Argentina 25.4 0.6 7 25 Argentina 30.3 0.7 27 26 Philippines 25.2 0.6 23 26 United Arab Emirates 28.2 0.7 8 27 Venezuela 23.9 0.6 4 27 Saudi Arabia 27.3 0.6 -2 28 Czech Rep. 22.5 0.5 3 28 Czech Rep.c 27.0 0.6 -3 29 Israel 22.4 0.5 9 29 Hungary 20.8 0.5 15 30 Hungary 18.7 0.4 19 30 Chile 19.6 0.5 10 Total of aboved 3844.0 92.0 5 Total of aboved 3918.0 90.7 5 Worldd 4180.0 100.0 5 Worldd 4320.0 100.0 5 aRetained imports are defined as imports less re-exports. bData exclude trade with the Baltic States and the CIS. Including trade with these States would lift Russian exports and imports to $86.6 billion and $65.7 billion, respectively. cImports are valued f.o.b. dIncludes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.

To: robnhood who wrote (21539)	11/20/1998 5:09:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

<<If Aug in 97 can be a strong month and Oct a weak- it necessarily does not mean the Oct may be a soft month..it can be Aug of 97-->> this is the post when bonds reigned supreme at 134-35--- Ike said bonds does not belong to here and market moves up--- This was in the middle of the last bear move- I gave rational as to why the move down will fail-- Look at the argumnets and now with the benefit of hindsight we were so right on the ball-- this is what I call working for that perfect interpretation of markets... Posted on Idea thread and buried somewhere-- Only earnings momentum will settle the issue all interim rallies are meaningless, we will keep establishing defensive positions on rallies but comes end Sept--- get out of all short positions we will see consolidation between the band of 910 and 990- most probably around these levels - 1030 will be the top unless we crack this from earnings momentum you will have two opinions about the strength of any move-- for me it is best that market keeps trading between 910 and 990-- so as to have that coil which I will consider as a part of the whole cycle and extend it backward to July 97 when we were struggling to take out 1000- with four quarters behind us since July 97 I would see no problems in next earning seasons to blow of much lowered expectations. I think the real action in two weeks will be in bonds and not in equity markets, the bonds will not stay where they are, this is the trade, the equity markets have built a slow down as we go forward but the economic numbers so far are not indicating that slow down, we have seen hourly earnings as one evidence new home sales as another, consumer confidence as third in a deflationary situation these are not the leading indicators of a economy which is slowing down. The action in ASEA and HSI tomorrow will set the tone for Europe, it looks like that after a initial lackluster trading session it is going to be news about Russia and HSI which will lead the bourses. Best of luck--- I hope we see this consolidation between 910 to 990 taking a firm root until earnings come along-- in the meantime the emphasis will gradually shift to bonds. Is 2000 points minus on DOW not enough a price for weakening economy- a 20% shave off S&P literally means that market is expecting an built in a huge corporate earning slowdown, mind you that this round of selling was not triggered by low earning expectations it was triggered by Russian security problems, the prospects of troubles spewing out in West Germany, the problems of peg in HK and a prospect of meltdown in ASEA as China devalues, none of these rumors which were at the top of agenda have come out to be true, now with a hair cut that S&P has got and all this negative built in the market any positive and strong number plus confirmation of new PM will trigger a very different kind of environment, the bonds and political uncertainty priced in the market means a third rejection of Russian PM and very docile economic numbers none so far is true... the delivery time approaches as corporations close on to next quarter announcement. If Aug in 97 can be a strong month and Oct a weak- it necessarily does not mean the Oct may be a soft month..it can be Aug of 97--