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To: Dr. Bob who wrote (26561)	11/20/1998 8:27:00 AM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Bob re: <How can billings get to be substantial until new fabs are announced? Sure, BtB will go up as people need to get spares..> True, but keep in mind that Oct bookings exceeded not only Sept, but also Aug numbers (albeit those 2 months were very poor). Nonetheless, IMO this further suggests a true inflection @ bottom. Of course, if AMAT numbers are not presently in the report, then the bottom turn will be much clearer after revision. BP

To: Dr. Bob who wrote (26561)	11/20/1998 10:02:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Bob, We all make a call based upon the information that we have. After investing another 4.5 hours during the past 3 days, I'm significantly more optimistic than I was at the end of last week. (4.5 hours were to listen to AMAT, ETEC and PRIA earnings conference calls). The PRIA call offers some insights which I believe are truly significant. We'll know whose call was right by the middle of 99 in terms of actual orders and billings. If Mitch Tyson is right, we're going to see it in the stock prices long before then. Those of us who have been hoping for a major pull back, are probably going to be very disappointed as we wait for something that I now believe is less likely to happen. FWIW, Ian.

To: Dr. Bob who wrote (26561)	11/20/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Re: <<How can billings get to be substantial until new fabs are announced?>> Before business can get to be rip-roaring, it has to stop getting worse. In mathematical parlance, this is a condition which is necessary but not sufficient, but it is still necessary, and it is worth noting that one of the necessary precursors to industry recovery has occurred. <<I'm not an unreconstructed bear; it may be worth getting in if one truly believes the new fab announcements are right around the corner. >> Why the short-term emphasis? The way to make money in semi-equips is with a one-to-three-year time frame, not what's "right around the corner". Trying to predict the sector in the short term is really, really tough.