Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (8729)	11/20/1998 3:55:00 PM
From: Diamond Jim	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

"Let me see if I have this Right. I was Wrong to buy AMAT because business is bad." + Correct!, you were as wrong as I was to buy Intel and make $ on it<g>, enjoying your turn? jim

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (8729)	11/20/1998 4:18:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 42834

LOL!

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (8729)	11/20/1998 4:59:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

jeff, are you saying that amat's business is going well? did bob predict that amat would be in the toilet and reach new highs anyway? or, rather, is he basing improved stock prices on improved business? if amat loses more money will it go higher? maybe if they lose a couple bucks we will see $60? $80? maybe amat ought to continue doing horrible b/c obviously that is what moves the stock price up and bob look good, right? fact, amat the stock has increased over 50%. fact, amat's business is in a worse state than in 1996. fact, amat's business is not showing any serious signs of improving. fact, amat's stock price is 200% higher than 1996 lows. fact, dram has bottomed enabling the dram producers to lose less money this q than last during their busiest season of the year. fact, korean fabs have lots of idle capacity (which i hear is beginning to come back on line and may hit the market - kill the market - within a month. fact, intel has decent orders, but we don't know if that is end customer demand or not (read, potential for inventory correction). fact, the next 6 months are the slow seasonals for dram (extra capacity plus reduced demand = ???). amat's price has not increased due to an actual increase in business. it has increased due to a speculative fever that business will increase. please don't tell us that amat is doing well now in order to justify the stock price. irrational is irrational. amat is vegas. amzn is vegas. can these prices stay high for long periods of time? xlnx has traded at over a 30 pe for 3 years with absolutely no growth. it is possible. i just think it is a mugs bet. now, amat's business may have a sustained upturn in early 1999. if so, then my paradigm would be wrong. the stock price IS NOT the business. don't get the two confused. the greedy are speculating now and not investing. they don't want to miss this next massive turn. i don't think it happens in 1999.