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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (8737)	11/20/1998 5:50:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

<<did bob predict that amat would be in the toilet and reach new highs anyway? or, rather, is he basing improved stock prices on improved business?>> I don't know Bob's reasons for what he has said about AMAT. I can only speak for myself. <<amat's business is in a worse state than in 1996>> Trailing indicator. <<amat's business is not showing any serious signs of improving>> Wrong, Bear-Breath. <G> Their book-to-bill went from 0.69 in Q3 to 1.02 in Q4, and you think it's not significant? Their bookings increase 12.5% from Q3 (an annualized rate of 60%), and you think it's not significant? <<fact, dram has bottomed enabling the dram producers to lose less money this q than last during their busiest season of the year.>> This is a leading indicator, and as such is the kind of information Wall Street responds to, like it or not. <<korean fabs have lots of idle capacity (which i hear is beginning to come back on line and may hit the market - kill the market - within a month.>> This is actually good news. If the DRAM producers misjudge the market to the point of losing money again, that's obviously bad, but nevertheless, before fab expansion can resume, we have to get utilization up. <<amat is vegas. amzn is vegas.>> A ridiculous comparison. AMAT has a long track record of strong cyclical earnings growth. AMZN does not. <<the stock price IS NOT the business. don't get the two confused.>> You have just made my point. Last fall, when earnings and bookings were strong, was it a good time to buy? NOT ON YOUR LIFE! <<they don't want to miss this next massive turn. i don't think it happens in 1999.>> Wall Street tries to look ahead in this sector. It's been that way a long time. Complaining about it is not likely to change it. As for 1999, James Morgan is expecting 1999 to be flat with 1998. Considering how far down business is now from the beginning of 1998, that implies a substantial increase in business sometime in 1999, and he did say that he expected improvement in the second half. I hope you will forgive me, and Wall Street, for giving his industry expertise more weight that yours.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (8737)	11/20/1998 6:52:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

<<Skeeter: jeff, are you saying that amat's business is going well? did bob predict that amat would be in the toilet and reach new highs anyway? or, rather, is he basing improved stock prices on improved business? >> No, Skeeter, I'm using humor to make a point. If you fight the market, if you fight the Fed., if you fight Bob Brinker, if you fight INTC, if you fight AMAT, if you fight the other gorillas out there you will eventually lose. I will say this about you though, you are here with guns blazing advocating your view in tough times for that viewpoint. Dipy and the rest of the spineless bears like him have left this thread when the market turned. But..... just to remind you, please take heed of the following..... << * DON'T ANYONE FORGET THIS POST! * To: don lane (1674 ) From: don lane Thursday, Oct 15 1998 6:41PM ET Here is my favorite quote from last weekend's radio show: "I am Bob Brinker.........and I am here........and I am bullish! And as they say, the rest is history! >>>