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To: David Fitz who wrote (17399)11/20/1998 10:13:00 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 53068
 
Internet Overview: -
As i see it, there are 3 dominant players players in the internet today: AOL, YHOO, and MSFT. AOL has 14 million customers who pay 10-20/month for access to AOL content and the internet. For many people, AOL is their internet connection. They don't need a separate ISP. YHOO is arguable the best portal, certainly to us investor freaks. They have the best business information as well as the standard information services. MSFT has its browser installed on all the new computers sold today, and is the default browser for these users. Very few people are going to bother downloading NSCP's browser. Additionally, MSFT is developing its MSN as a major portal which will lead to all kinds of revenue in the future.
EBAY and AMZN are phenomena in themselves, but they are retail outlets and are popular because of the services they offer. They can be accessed by any of the browsers or portals.
It is becoming increasingly logical that AOL acquire NSCP and have its own browser and also assimilate NSCP's Netcenter. It may become necessary for them to do so to remain competitive in the internet battle.
YHOO is also a very strong force. Very popular, very imaginative, and very fast. It is also ingrained to many as the portal of choice. Even I, who is a rabid NSCP fan and investor, have YHOO biz center as my home page on NSCP communicator. But YHOO will be under increasing pressure from both AOL and MSFT. Most AOL users do not use YHOO at all.
and then there's the 8 ton Redmond Gorilla. MSFT has a very successful game plan of entering late into a field, and then dominating it. No reason to think that the internet will be any different, especially with IE installed as the default browser on all new computers.
I have made the, admitedly very large assumption, that SEEK, XCIT, LYCOS, etc are second tier players in the great internet battle.
Summation: NSCP is becoming an increasingly strong and necessary pawn in the great internet game. I think that in the next year, and probably very sooner, NSCP will be acquired by either AOL or YHOO. It is hard to imagine NSCP being acquired by MSFT. gggg larrry



To: David Fitz who wrote (17399)11/22/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: DanZ  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
 
FILE, IOM, retail stocks

FILE has resistance from the upper daily bollinger band at about 9 3/4. I would sell it on a rally to that area if I owned it. Support is about 8 1/2 and 7 3/4. It looks like a trading range on this one between 7 3/4 to 10 and I would play it in that range until it breaks one way or the other. If I sold it at 9 1/2 to 9 3/4, I might buy it back on a break above 10 1/8.

IOM looks like a trading range between 7 and 9 1/2. It closed on Friday at 8 3/16, in the middle of the the range. I wouldn't buy it at the current price because the upside and downside are about equal.

Retail stocks.

Here's some ideas that I'm thinking about for tomorrow. Of the retail stocks that I follow, I like these the best right now. The prices are approximate and I might buy 1/8 to 1/4 above or below my entry targets and will probably only go for two or three of these depending on how they look tomorrow.

ANN: buy 31, target 33 3/4, risk to 30
BBBY: buy 26, target 27 3/4, risk to 25 1/2
LTD: buy 26 3/4, target 28 to 28 1/2, risk to 26 1/8
PBY: buy 15 1/8, target 16 1/4 to 16 1/2, risk to 14 3/4
RL: buy stop 20 1/2, target 22 1/2, risk to 20 if stopped in
TOY: buy 19 3/4 to 19 7/8, target 20 3/4, risk to 19 1/4

PS to Larry, Ron, Sue, and others holding NSCP...Congratulations! It's a great feeling to own a stock that gets taken over. If it opens way up, I'd probably sell it if I owned it. The stock will likely get hit if the sale doesn't pan out, and even if AOL does offer to buy NSCP, you might not get much more than tomorrow's price. If they offer stock instead of cash, you have to worry about AOL's stock price going down on the news and reducing the value of NSCP. I think there's a lot of risk in holding NSCP in a situation like that, especially if it opens up a bunch.