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To: FJB who wrote (20254)	11/21/1998 12:41:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Bob, How do replacement lasers fit into the picture? These lasers have a finite lifespan and will need replacement at some point, but on the surface these predictions only appear to have incorporated lasers which will be shipped with new steppers. Any thoughts as to whether the replacements will augment current predictions? TIA. Brian

To: FJB who wrote (20254)	11/21/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Respond to of 25960

Wait a minute, folks. There are some 500+ lasers operational and 300 in inventory, right? And inventory isn't exactly flying off the shelf. Now if you go by the old SIA estimates from last year, you probably overestimate semi production for year 2000 by a factor of 4. 1000 lasers/year is what the capacity was scoped for, and nearly what the production was ramped up to, but the demand was saturated pretty quickly. I think 1000/year on any meaningfully sustained period is way too optimistic. Dreams like that is what got the original batch of buyers in trouble. Greg