To: Ilaine who wrote (37216 ) 11/21/1998 8:53:00 PM From: Knighty Tin Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Coby, You can't do it because Wall Street analysis, bullish or bearish, is now one-source. The analyst calls the co. and the co. provides projections of sales and profit margins and as much breakdown as the analyst wants. For example, one of the problems, out of many, I've had with Kurlak over the years is his absolute ignorance of Asian chip capacity. If Micron or AMD or Intel isn't telling him they are worried about it, he doesn't report on it and I suspect, isn't even aware of it. After they get wacked by the glut of capacity, then he takes notice. And Kurlak is not the worst analyst out there. Pretty much everyone on Wall Street, in 1996, ignored the fact that the Taiwanese were building DRAM fabs all over the island. I couldn't believe it. How else could Whittington, who was numero uno before Kurlak, derive a $17 eps estimate for MU in 1997? They were not within $18 of that number. <G> So, my main concern is that the analysts are working with either faulty, incomplete or horribly biased data, or all of the above.
