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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (34142)	11/22/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: bob wallace	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ I have not posted or lurked on this thread for sometime, but I came out today looking for the consensus....and I guess to add my 2 cents the Aug to Oct 8 sell-off this year resembles quite strongly the sell-off which occured in Aug/Sept 1981 what strikes me coming out of this year's sell-off is the strength in multiple technical indicators I use: - 9 to 1 volume (twice:9/8 and 10/15) - Zweig market timing model at a max bullish reading of 10 - a strong buy signal from an advance/decline model I use - a strong buy signal from the new high/new low indicator I use but what strikes me as curious, is that the 1981 sell-off was followed by exactly the same strong readings in all the indicators mentioned above, except the 9 to 1 volume indicator what I conclude is that strong indicators do not themselves guarantee a resumption of the bull market, though we have surely experienced a very strong rally and in spite of the rally, there are several disturbing indicators, one of which is the Mamis advance/decline oscillator, which, until Friday had been declining as the Dow made its most recent highs; and the AAII and Investor Intelligence bullish readings are at very high levels (I have never seen the AAII investors so bullish); and finally the clincher is in the the open positions of large commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures contracts - while the commercial hedgers are still net long, their net long positions have decline by 32,000 contracts since the Oct 8 low - this is a very very negative divergence with the Dow's performance In as much as the S&P 500 hs been up for six straight days, I would expect the odds for down day on Monday are quite high, the question would be whether the market continues to rally or begins another decline.... my money is on a new decline Bob