To: balisurf who wrote (855 ) 5/3/1999 9:03:00 AM From: Tomas Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2742
"Malaysia gas production is likely to increase by 8% this year" - Bank Negara Petroleum Intelligence Weekly May 3, 1999 Sheltered Economy Fuels Malaysia's Fragile Recovery The Malaysian economy is recovering from last year's 6.7% shrinkage at a faster pace than many expected. Although some projected economic expansion of 1%-1.5% this year and double that in 2000 is due to artificial stimulus in a protected environment, three bond-grading agencies were impressed enough to boost Malaysia's debt rating in the past two weeks. Oil analysts are not far behind. The East-West Center in Honolulu admitted surprise upon discovering that oil demand rose 1.8% last year, to 436,000 barrels a day. It had forecast that 1998 oil demand would be flat, at best. The center is now projecting 2% growth in 1999, to 445,000 b/d. Modest numbers by historic standards, perhaps, but a clear sign of revival in one of Asia's bellwether economies. Others put 1999 oil demand growth at anywhere from flat to 2%. A 10,000 b/d drop in gas oil use in 1998 reflected weak industrial performance, while strong gasoline demand growth of 9,000 b/d indicates resilience in the transportation sector, the East-West Center says. It is symptomatic of the fragility of the recovery that state power company Tenaga Nasional forecasts a rise of anywhere from 2%-8% in power use this year. If Malaysia is a symbol of a tentative Asian resurgence, however, it is also an example of the vulnerability of any Asian country to its neighbors' health, particularly where natural gas is concerned. Some 60% of Malaysia's 1.4-billion cubic feet a day of production goes as liquefied natural gas to economically ailing Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, with the rest used domestically. This limits Malaysia's control over demand for its gas and the health of a key industrial sector. Japan and South Korea each cut back on LNG purchases in 1998. South Korea is considered another good turnaround example and may boost LNG consumption by as much as 19% this year, to 12.43-million tons, according to Korea Gas (Kogas) President Kap-soo Han. But there is no guarantee that Malaysia will share in such a resurgence {38#01-03}. For its part, Japan is considered a continuing economic disaster zone. Malaysia gas production is likely to increase by 8% this year, says Bank Negara, Malaysia's central bank. Independent analysts are skeptical. "I don't know where they are going to put that gas, much less the new sources coming on in the next several years, " says one. While Exxon just ramped up capacity at its Lawit complex by 250-million cf/d, to 700-million cf/d, Swedish Lundin Oil is postponing by two years a 250-million cf/d scheme originally due on line by 2001. The biggest question is the durability of Malaysia's improved performance. On the economic plane, the current combination of shelter and stimulus cannot last forever. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has also stirred a chord of dissent through the treatment of his former deputy, thus making politics part of the equation, as well. Mahathir projects 5% economic growth in 2000 from his home- grown version of bunker economics. He imposed stern capital controls on foreign investors and pumped money - including some $1-billion from state Petronas - into infrastructure spending to stimulate the economy. "This economy is like a hothouse flower," says Alan Troner of Kuala Lumpur-based Asia Pacific Energy Consulting. "You have to put it back outdoors to see how it really does." ______________________________________ Statoil signs agreement for Vietnam natural gas project to develop two fields OSLO, AFX May 3 Statoil AS said it signed three agreements on April 29 laying the basis for a major natural gas project in Vietnam. The venture includes the development of the Lan Tay and Lan Do gas and condensate discoveries in block 06.1 off southern Vietnam, building a gas pipeline to land from these fields in the Nam Com Son Basin, and new facilities to utilize the production for power generation and fertiliser. The deal is Norway's most extensive development project with foreign participation to date, Statoil said.