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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (846)	11/24/1998 4:31:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3558

FED pumping causes rates to fall because the supply of money exceeds that which is demanded at the margin. However, there are regimes where this isn't the case. We aren't in such a regime yet. We aren't because the money leaks out through the borders. It drives foreign economies because foreign producers are the low cost producers. FED is using this fact in an attempt to bail out Asia. The hope is that Asia will come along sufficiently before trouble breaks out here from the residual effects of excess money and the FED has to back off. This is all mistaken policy which I detailed in other threads during the summer. One of the mistakes is that the pumping causes the stock market to race back up making it vulnerable to a panic over reaction. No doubt that cools the tendency for trouble to develop, but it also forces the FED to start pumping again. The financial swings provoke irrational behavior even though the tail doesn't wag the dog. The threat there is that Asia loses confidence and starts buying T-Bonds again which undermines their re-liquification process. The result is FED has to start pumping even more furiously. Eventually this causes gold to rise regardless of whether there is tangible evidence of inflation. You get monetary inflation, too many dollars chasing too few uninflated paper assets. I'll bet the coin is better than your indications. I have sophisticated machinery that is 95% accurate. I've made piles with it. Now I avoid it at all costs. It's evil. I created this Frankenstein's Monster and I regret having done it. I can't even begin to explain why this is the case. I just want to be a regular investor who has to grin and bear the miserable swings against held positions. Taking money from markets is for fools. I want to earn a portion of capital growth only. I don't want to beat the market. The purpose of investment is to enable companies to make a better world. A pile of money doesn't make the world better for an individual though almost no one on the planet believes that.

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (846)	11/24/1998 4:45:00 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3558

"Yes, the FED has been pumping but they have been pumping for a long long time...yet rates have continued to come down. When does it all come home to roost..." Don't know who wrote this BUT: If we are to assume that the USA was entering into a deflation state as so many are suggesting, than the pumping of money into the system will be assorbed. So that deflation will be cancelled out by inflationary pumping. And this does not fare well for GOLD, or gold stocks. As Growth, {difference between monetary inflation, and consumer inflation} can expand at a rapid rate. And this will have the effect of raising the US dollar relative to lower performing currencies such as Mark, Pound, and Yen. And at the same time lower GOLD. So the pumping is not YET of any importance, BUT should it continue as growth rates decline than you'll enter a inflationary ramp. TA is very important, and you can trade off the data collected. As TA usually trades above the fundamentals data. And once you know this you can actively trade in the regions between those whom believe a stock is over valued, and under valued. No one indicator is the be all end all, but many are lagging reporters. I have my favorite, and many I use to pick and choose options. I do, attempt to:"predict that stock X will be at price Y at point in Time Z." Cause without such predictions, how can you tell when to get in/out of options? And I do have a very good degree of accuracy. Time is the hardest thing to judge, not price. And when government interfere into market places it prolongs time. It's my opinion that ABX and Gold will decline from tuesday {posted} to a low in DEC, but timeing required me to buy the Jan puts...