To: accountclosed who wrote (37469 ) 11/24/1998 5:09:00 PM From: Tommaso Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 132070
Well so far so good on my latest venture into bearishness. David Dreman's Stock Market Psychology is a good book on that subject, but I think a book remains to be written about the proper attitudes for investing. For example, one of the worst states of mind to get into is to try to get revenge on the market or on some imagined segment thereof. That's much like a great aunt of mine who, I was told, "took the weather personally." Probably the best outlook is a combination of accountant and careful poker player. Indeed, it is my understanding that John Templeton paid many of his expenses at Yale, I think it was, or maybe Princeton, with poker winnings. In any case, there is a whole array of inappropriate feelings or attitudes that can interfere with successful investing. These range from stunned inadequacy to giggly exhilaration, with excess caution and self-congratulatory complacency somewhere between. Stubbornness can be either bad or good. One has constantly to guard against continuing in ways of error out of personal vanity--and in the other direction, abandoning a sound plan from fear of ridicule. My own worst weakness is falling in love with my own bright ideas and failing to try to imagine an event that might invalidate them. For example, it seemed clear as day to me that the millions of low mpg sports utilities vehicles were going to consume the world's oil at a criminal rate. I was correct. But I never imagined that OPEC would nullfy this by pumping oil even faster than it could ne consumed. Also disastrous for me is euphoria over temporary success. The minute I feel that way I should SELL, but the feeling is so pleasant that one wants more of it. Anyway, analysis of the psychology of the markets usually looks at crowd behavior from the outside. There needs to be a good book about how to make allowances for one's own internal reactions. Or so I say. It may be that one is just born with the right disposition for making money.