Egypt Joins Greece to Counter Israeli-Turkish Bloc --
At Russian Prompting?
On November 24, the Greek news agency reported that Greece and
Egypt will hold their first joint military exercise, in the
Eastern Mediterranean. Scheduled from November 27 through
December 2, the exercise, code-named "Alexandria-98", will
involve two frigates from each country. The location and timing
of this exercise is undoubtedly meant as a show of force against
the growing Turkish-Israeli alliance. This, in and of itself, is
a major shift in Egyptian policy. Egypt has rejected attempts to
draw it into the Turkish-Israeli bloc, and has condemned Israeli
behavior on a number of fronts, but it has not yet joined Greece
in active confrontation with Turkey and Israel. Given the
tangled web of Middle Eastern alliances, Egypt's move sheds
considerable light on the emerging Arab-Greek-Persian bloc.
>From the Camp David accords until quite recently, Egypt has been
one of the U.S.'s most reliable Arab allies. However Egypt, like
Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been disturbed by recent trends
in U.S. policy, including the tacitly U.S.-backed Israeli-Turkish
alliance, Washington's predominantly pro-Israeli position in the
Middle East peace process, and Washington's failure to develop
consistent responses to Iraqi provocations. Yet despite common
concerns, no Arab or Persian country has been able to exercise a
clear leadership role and create a unified regional position.
Egypt, Syria and Iraq have not been on excellent terms with each
other, and none of these countries has the overwhelming political
clout needed to fill such a role. Saudi Arabia, the natural
choice for such a role, has not only been in the middle of a
succession crisis but also been crippled by low oil prices and
its reliance on the U.S. for the purchase of most of its oil.
In the midst of this power vacuum, Iran tried, initially through
its proxy, Syria, and later through improved relations with Saudi
Arabia, Egypt and the GCC, to gain the mantle of leadership by
calling for an Arab-Persian alignment as a counter to the
continuing U.S. presence in the Middle East. Iran has been
actively involved in discussions with Greece over military
cooperation and Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi met with
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak on November 23 to call for
better relations between the two countries. At that time, he
explicitly stated the price for Iranian friendship. Egypt would
have to distance itself from Israel. Said Kharazi, "We have said
the more Egypt distances itself from Israel, the more eager we
will be to normalize relations with Cairo." Nevertheless, Kharazi
conceded that the Egyptians had already taken considerable steps
over the past year to do so precisely that. Egypt and Iran also
held high level talks over the Turkish-Syrian crisis that last
month almost sparked a regional war. This Egyptian-Iranian thaw
has followed a similar warming of relations between Saudi Arabia
and Iran. However, even if Iran garners the support of all these
countries, should a new regime come to power in Iraq, all bets
regarding the structure of this emerging alliance are off.
Given the fluidity of this region's politics, the one remaining
hope for any consolidation of Middle Eastern interests appears to
be through the involvement of an outside power. It is looking
increasingly as if Russia is asserting itself to assume this
role. On November 14-16, Russian Defense Minister Marshal Igor
Sergeyev met with officials in Syria and Egypt to discuss the
prospect of renewed military cooperation. On November 20, the
United Arab Emirate newspaper, "Al-Ittihad", reported that
certain Arab countries intended to underwrite the cost of an arms
deal with Syria. In addition, the Russians, in order to
facilitate further purchases of Russian arms by the Syrians, have
reportedly canceled some of Syria's debt. The new cooperation
agreement with Russia will include: first, training for Syrian
officers in Russia; second, doubling the number of Russian
experts and advisors in Syria; third, modernizing Syrian SU-30
fighter/attack aircraft; fourth, the purchase of advanced Russian
T-80 tanks, modernizing old tanks, and repairing Mig-29 fighters;
and, finally, the equipping of Syrian anti-aircraft units with S-
300 missiles, the same missiles that are the focal point of the
current Greek-Turkish confrontation.
The next day, Sergeyev met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak
and the two reportedly discussed military cooperation and other
technical topics. The meeting allegedly culminated in the two
leaders signing agreements on what Sergeyev called, "a wide
spectrum of modernization, repairs, and delivery of military
hardware, and whatever else Egypt might be interested in."
Despite the fact that Egypt has purchased mainly U.S.-made
weapons in the past 25 years, the Egyptian military still has a
large quantity of Soviet-manufactured anti-aircraft systems,
fighters and tanks. Despite the fact that the Egyptians receive
extraordinary amounts of foreign aid from the U.S., this offer
apparently struck a chord in Cairo. On November 18, Mubarak
called for the development of an advanced national military force
to protect Egypt from the "advocates of war and expansion."
Russia has expanded its interest to include other parts of the
region. On November 23, Russia announced that it intends to
cooperate further with Iran in the field of nuclear power. During
his visit to the Bushehr Nuclear power plant (which was built in
Iran with Russian assistance), the Russian Atomic Energy
Minister, Yevgeniy Admov's announced that Russia plans to further
assist the Iranians. Also, as mentioned above, Russian is
supplying S-300 missiles to the Greek Cypriot government, a
development that has been a key factor in sustaining the Greek-
Turkish conflict over Cyprus.
There are several reasons for Russia to pursue this strategy. The
first is that Russia, which is bleeding economically, is strapped
for cash. The two critical industries on which Russia depends for
hard currency are its oil industry, which cannot do much good in
a depressed oil market, and its arms industry. The second reason
Russia is attempting to reassert itself, as an equal with the
U.S., is strategic. The assertion of Russian influence over such
countries as Iran, Iraq, Syria, and, to a lesser extent, Egypt,
is designed to provide Moscow with a bargaining chip against
Washington; to defend the southern flank of the former Soviet
Union from U.S. influence; and, in the extreme, to threaten the
supply of oil to the US and its NATO allies. It is also clearly
a continuation of the historic policies of the USSR to weaken the
unity of NATO and turn its flank. A further indication that NATO
is Russia's target is the influx of arms to Greece. This gambit
is designed to drive a wedge between NATO allies on the eve of a
scheduled meeting (on November 24) of NATO during which the
significance of the Greek-Turkish conflict for changes in the
structure of the alliance will be discussed. These Russian probes
into the Middle East and the Mediterranean are designed to take
pressure off of Russia's western front by undermining the
alliance's structure and halting its expansion eastward.
The Egyptian-Greek exercises show exactly how successful the
recent Russian initiatives have been, and how much the United
States has undermined its own alliances in the region. Iran,
Syria, and Greece regard themselves as at the front line opposing
the Israeli-Turkish alliance, and they have already taken steps
to solidify their relationships with each other. Now, Egypt is
flirting with joining this camp on the pretext of countering an
Israeli threat. The Russian offer of military assistance may
provide the Egyptians with a further inducement to cooperate with
the Greeks. Though we may not know for certain if this is the
case, it does help explain the sudden shift in Egyptian policy
towards the Greeks.
It is certain that there has been growing dissatisfaction in
Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Iran with the
U.S. policies. For quite some time, we have been closely
monitoring this trend. Until now, no regime in the region has
been able to reconcile the interests of the Greeks, the Persians,
and the Arabs. Russia, in an attempt to reassert its influence in
the region and in order to force the U.S. to deal with it as an
equal, is assuming a leadership role the Middle East and the
Eastern Mediterranean. This is an alarming outcome, especially
for what it portends for U.S. interests in Russia's backyard --
Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.
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