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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Shane M who wrote (602)11/24/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: Terence Mitchell  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4691
 
Hi Shane,

I'm not a sophisticated Hi-tech investor and have shied away from the internet stocks out of shear dis-belief in their rapid ascent. My background is more rooted in the resource sector and old value ideas. The only parallel that I can draw on, is the highly speculative Mining & exploration stocks (of which we have oodles in Canada).

They are the "field of dreams" and the ruination of many young investors. The raw statistics are that approx one in one thousand discoveries become a mine therefore eventually most people lose their money except the ones that took it off the table in the run-ups.

When I see the market caps of the Amazon.coms/e-bays etc, I cannot comprehend such values. So am I a fool for not jumping in ?, I think not because I am exposing myself to things I know little about and my life experience is that it is at such times that I have lost the most.

I would be taking money off the table right now, awaiting some kind of shakeout and if opportunities present themselves again, or if things become more clear then "maybe" re-investing.

Yesterday Bill Gates made almost 3 billion on paper, to me that is so monstrous, that I cannot believe the excesses that exist in today's markets, again I just find it mind boggling.

This post was not intended to add much to the "intellectual debate" about value, only to add a precaution from an older person who just feels that something is not right here and I can't quite put my finger on it, but I would be extremely cautious.

regards, Terence Mitchell

PS In a few years, some bright uncluttered 17 year old is going to come along with an idea and make the work of MSFT obsolete and then Bill will wonder where the billions went. The reason, he won't see it coming because his course is set, he is now a meglomaniac and his success will be his eventual undoing.



To: Shane M who wrote (602)11/25/1998 10:34:00 AM
From: bananawind  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4691
 
Shane,

Not to put too fine a point on it, but WEB in the referenced quote was not saying an internet business is worth zero, just that anyone who thinks they know this value has missed the entire point of business valuation. Without a reasonable way to evaluate probable future cash flows, the range of possible valuations is so wide as to render the exercise useless. That does not make these businesses worth nothing, but leaves their current values in the realm of the unknowable.
-JLF



To: Shane M who wrote (602)11/25/1998 6:08:00 PM
From: James Clarke  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 4691
 
You're missing the point. The quote from Buffett is not saying he believes (or I believe) that the internet stocks are worth nothing. It is saying that no honest person, no matter how much analysis they do, can say with any conviction what that value is. Thus there can be no investment with a margin of safety.

JJC