To: HG who wrote (15556 ) 11/25/1998 10:13:00 AM From: Dave Mansfield Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
Some interesting points happy girl. I'll comment on a couple. First, I don't think I'd characterize the AOL/Netscape deal as consolidation. AOL is first and foremost an ISP. Yeah they have AOL.net which I suppose is a portal, but their bread and butter is as an ISP. Netscape on the other hand is a browser company and a portal company. To me this is more of a vertical integration deal than a consolidation. Consolidation would be a merger between Excite and Lycos or Yahoo and Snap. Of all those portal companies it would appear that Yahoo has one of the highest valuations based on P/E, P/S, number of customers and number of hits. If I were one of their competitors, I would rather try to reach their valuations than merge into them. After all, what would I get if I merged? Some of that high priced Monopoly money otherwise known as Yahoo stock? As far as a vertical integration deal with the likes of Microsoft, I can't see Microsoft spending what would have to be $25-$30B in a takeover either using cold hard cash or their stock which would certainly dilute it. Their stock is obviously nowhere nearly as overvalued as Yahoo stock. I still feel they will take the route of improving their existing site. They've got brand name as it is, they just need better content. And if the Federal government succeeds in changing the way Microsoft does business, possibly breaking parts of it up, I'd be very nervous about a free-wheeling net based Microsoft company competing with me. Bottom line the downside on this stock appears to be incredibly larger than the upside. I mean a 350 P/E on future expected 12 months earnings? Gee! Happy Thanksgiving