And an interesting Y2K story from the International Herald Tribune:
Big Bug Crunch
Believing Alfred Hitchcock
LONDON - When the year 2000 computer problem gained wide recognition a couple of years ago, the first reaction was disbelief that a computer's inability to distinguish 2000 from 1900 could
seriously disrupt modern life.
Subsequently, companies and governments around the globe have spent tens of billions of dollars to replace computers, rewrite decades-old software and test their equipment and operating systems. But with only 400 days to go to 2000, there is a growing realization that time is quickly running out.
So today, governments and industry no longer talk simply about fixing the millennium bug. They are actively preparing contingency plans to keep vital operations going as best as they can if and when
problems arise.
''At this point in time, we can say with assurance there are people who aren't going to make it,'' said Michael Powell, a commissioner at the U.S. Federal Communications Commission.
''We're definitely past the period of where you're going to solve the problem. We're into mitigation.''
The new emphasis on anticipating failures reflects the unprecedented nature of the year 2000 problem. The pervasiveness of technology and the complexity of supply chains can cause problems to
cascade through the global economy, disrupting business activity, communications and transportation networks, and basic services like power and water.
While multinational companies and banks appear well-prepared, many government agencies and companies, especially small businesses, are behind schedule or have yet to address the problem.
''We may be ready,'' said Max Rens, chief information officer of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines. But, he added, referring to Europe's patchwork of air-traffic control systems, ''we can't fly if they are not ready.''
The steps being taken range from the mundane, like restocking forms to be able to revert to paper if computerized order systems fail, to the strategic, such as finding alternative suppliers of parts or stockpiling raw materials and finished goods, which companies like Unilever are considering.
American and British authorities are drawing up plans for police and emergency services to respond to widespread disruptions or civil unrest.
Even the U.S. Federal Reserve has gotten into action, ordering the printing of an extra $50 billion of notes in case consumers hoard cash ahead of the millennium bug weekend.
''Contingency planning should be considered a legitimate exercise and not an admission that you expect failure,'' said Roger Ferguson, a member of the Fed's board of governors and chairman of the
presidential Year 2000 Council.
The current state of preparedness underscores the need for contingency arrangements. Gartner Group, a U.S. consultancy that conducts the broadest assessment of year 2000 preparations, warned
last month that 23 percent of the companies it surveys in 87 countries had not started any work on the problem, a worrying sign, as it takes the average medium-sized company a full 30 months to make all its critical operations year 2000 compliant.
Gartner predicted that one-third to one-half of companies and government agencies worldwide would experience a disruption to operations severe enough to halt production or product delivery, cause a significant loss of revenue or legal liability, or pose a health hazard. In the United States, where remedial efforts are believed to be among the most advanced, disruptions were expected to hit as
many as 15 percent of companies and agencies.
''The problem continues to be underestimated, and full-scale actions to address it are only recently beginning in many countries,'' the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development warned in
a similar report. Half of OECD member countries have begun drawing up contingency plans to deal with year 2000 problems, it said.
Although no one can be sure where problems will arise or how severe they will be, a consensus is developing that problems will stop short of catastrophe. Gartner predicted that 90 percent of
disruptions will be resolved within three days, and many companies are making contingencies for relatively short disruptions.
Airbus Industrie, which flies aircraft parts from member companies in Britain, Germany and Spain to the consortium's final assembly plant in Toulouse, France, is planning to stockpile one or two weeks' worth of parts in Toulouse before Dec. 31, 1999, to safeguard production in case Europe's skies are closed by a failure of air-traffic control systems, according to Helga Flosdorff, the company's year 2000 project manager.
Unilever, the British-Dutch consumer products group, is sitting down with key suppliers to assess their compliance before deciding, sometime early next year, whether to stockpile raw materials or
finished goods. But the company already is lining up backup communications facilities with satellite companies such as Inmarsat and Iridium, said Nick White, head of technology and communications.
The U.S. Coast Guard is considering stockpiling such vital spare parts as rotors for its fleet, said George Naccara, the service's chief information officer. ''We have found suppliers who have said,
'We will go out of business on Dec. 31.'''
The Coast Guard also has ordered 10,000 inspection forms to be printed in case its computerized ship-inspection system crashes, and it is considering deploying its ships in all major U.S. ports so
their satellite communications can be used as a backup in case telephone service breaks down.
While anticipating technical problems is difficult, trying to predict the behavior of consumers is even more fraught with risk. Two Hollywood studios are believed to be preparing year 2000 disaster films for release next summer. The American Association of Retired People has urged members to have $1,000 in cash for every person in their household. Even Gartner, which warns against a ''bomb-shelter mentality,'' is advising people to fill their gasoline tanks, set aside two weeks' salary in cash and stock batteries, medicines and a week's worth of food.
''I'm often asked, 'Will there be a dial tone?''' said Mr. Powell of the communications commission. His answer: ''Yes, unless you and everyone else picks up the phone to check.''
Mr. Powell is encouraging U.S. telephone companies to enter mutual-assistance pacts to provide stopgap service in case of year 2000 failures. Many business executives maintain such government
efforts to ensure the reliability of power, communications and transportation networks will be vital to preventing a panic.
''Public confidence in the infrastructure will affect consumer behavior,'' Mr. White of Unilever said.
Mr. Ferguson of the Federal Reserve downplayed the prospect of panic. While the risk of market disruption is real, he said, banks and financial institutions have led the way in preparing for a fix for
the millennium bug.
''I don't think the American people will believe the year 2000 disaster story any more than they believed Alfred Hitchcock,'' he said.
International Herald Tribune, Nov. 27, 1998 |
