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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (6046)	11/28/1998 8:41:00 PM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9719

<<<<With regard to the porfolio the question is where do we go from here. >>>>>> Well, should we short more or go long more, that is the question??? Ebay is ridiculous, but I thought that at $110 many others at $80, it is now $218. Reminds me of Netscape after their IPO, which they eventually went to about 25% of, and are now at about 50% of. This bubble has got to bust sometime, and when it does my guess is that it crashes incredibly fast. There has got to be a better option play on it than selling short. You know damn well that sometime in the next 6 months or so this one has got to plummet. This sucker is just held up by traders and not on any fundamental basis. Eventually the traders will move on and the fundamentals will kick in. Plus, with valuations and hype like this and virtually no barrier to entry other than Brand, which Ebay really doesn't have that much of a lead on IMHO, there has got be a lot of competition sharpening their claws at this very moment. You've just got to love the numbers though: Based on $218 per share it has a $8.8B market cap, with nine months ended 9/30/98, revenues totalled $27.9 million, up from $3.1 million. Net income rose 28% to $878 thousand and $74M cash mostly from their IPO. The Price/Book is over 100 and the P/E ratio is 3052. Damn ridiculous. Although 40M shares are outstanding, there are only 3.5M shares in float (all of which are probably being passed every day). What a friggin' joke!!! This is nothing but musical chairs and somebody is going to be sitting on the floor someday soon. Wish a little internet would rub off on biotech sometime though. The VCs are playing me too these days and are moving toward the big internet scores in droves while thinking that biotech is too high risk and takes too long. Makes me wonder if a career change is in order? Rman