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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Holton who wrote (5670)	11/29/1998 5:45:00 PM
From: FMK	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27311

How good can it get? Some optimistic numbers. These are nothing more than my own guess as to how good it could get by the end of next year. It includes revenues from GM Delphi, two joint ventures and production from four assembly machines in Valence's Northern Ireland plant. There is already a consensus that my projections have been rather optimistic. However, I have been told otherwise by a group who will visit the plant next week. 50% profits on 1mln cellphone batteries/mo from Hanil JV ---$24mln/30mln sh = -----------------------------$0.80/sh 100% profits on 1mln cellphone batt/mo by Valence on identical Arcotronics line-----$48mln/30mln sh-----------$1.60/sh 50% profits of additional production line from Hanil JV ------------------------------------------------------$0.25/sh 90% profits on the army's $15,000 OICW (objective individual combat weapon) that an Alliant Tech spokesman stated that Valence will build batteries for, to replace the now-standard M16 rifle. No telling when govt will announce. These numbers are no more than a wild guess. Est 1mln rifles x $200/batt x 40% profit = $80 mln/30mln -----------------------------------------------------$2.65/sh 50% of other Alliant/Valence JV profits on Seal propulsion, combat vest batteries etc. very rough estimate 50% of $30mln-------------------------------------------$0.50/sh Possible laminate sales to GM Delphi automotive and royalties for SLI (starting lights ignition) batteries replacing conventional lead-acid batteries on certain GM models-----$0.30/sh Possible laminate sales to GM Dephi for Vehicle propulsion batteries------------------------------------------$0.30/sh 2.5 mln laptop batteries from line 1 at $75 each x 40% profit/30mln-------------------------------------$2.50/sh 10 mln unnamed application batt at $6 each x 40% profit/30mln --------------------------------------------------$0.80/sh 25,000 unnamed application batt at $1000 each x 40% 30mln --------------------------------------------------$0.30/sh Estimated total possible earnings-----------------$10.00/sh If next week's plant visitors discount these numbers by 50%, they might still end up with about $5 per share of earnings for the end of next year. Applying a 25PE multiple would then indicate a $125 share price. Possible license agreements with such companies as Mitsubishi, Sanyo, Sony or Matsushita etc. were not included. I have heard estimates that revenue from license agreements could exceed earnings from Valence's own production. Some related links exchange2000.com exchange2000.com exchange2000.com After going through these numbers, I can't understand why anyone would want to sell their stock. There are just too many likely positive outcomes that suggest Bert Roberts, MCI Worldcom's chairman, had good reason to come on board!