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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (11302)	11/29/1998 1:59:00 PM
From: Bruce L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42804

<I may join you if this baby re-tests the lows like I am afraid for you it might> MUSINGS FOR A SUNDAY l. Though shortened, trading on Friday was interesting. It began with what I think was an attempt by a MMs to lure in some buyers. Just before opening there was an instanet trade of just 200-300 shares at around 7 1/4 which, of course, would have been a gap up. Whatever, it actually opened at 6 7/8, only fractionally higher. At 11:36(ET) the stock was trading at 6 3/4-7/8 and giving every indication it was going to be another low volume, do-nothing day even though there had been 2 trades earlier of 5000 and 7700 shares at 6 15/16 and 6 7/8 respectively, each time at the ask. Suddenly, a trade of 6000 shares crossed at 6 3/4. It was quickly followed by trades of 1200, 1200, 6000, 3400, 1000,1000,1000,2000, and 2200, all at 6 3/4. I fully expected the stock to drop precipitously. The 3 trades of 1000 shares were probably day traders who thought the same thing. My experience with the MMs in MRVC is that they are a nervous lot who usually act with alacrity to lower their bids on even mild selling pressure. But they didn't this time. An hour later there were two trades of 9000 and 7000 shares at the ask of 6 7/8. The stock closed on a slightly up note. 2. I posted here earlier that money flow was positive for the first time in a couple weeks on 11/20/98. It proved to be an aberration: the following days showed very mild negative money flow, except for Friday when it was precisely flat at 0. 3. After MRVC's last earnings announcement we all believed the stock was going to get killed; to fall below 5. Strange to say, it did not. On this date (Oct 30) traded very briefly as low as 6, but closed at 6 7/8 on very heavy volume of 1.8 million. We saw that day the heaviest concentration of big block trades; there were a number of block trades of 50-60,000 shares at the ask. Ironic, don't you think? In candlestick terms, this day was a "hammer" signifying a change in trend: to up. Since then MRVC popped up, slowly pulled back, but still seems to me to be in its basing pattern with very, very strong support at 6 3/4. 4. You state that you think MRVC is going lower. Why? The chart pattern is as indicated. I'm not an expert, but all technical indicators (e.g., cci, rsi, MACD) seem flat to slightly positive. Fundamentally, its book value is 6 1/2 and its forward looking prospects - as reflected by others on this thread far better than I_- also look positive. 5. I've focused before on what I saw as accumulation of this stock by funds and other large players. What I've missed is the sad fact that simultaneously other large players are dis-accumulating MRVC. Some reasons: Some mutual fund charters prohibit ownership of stocks under $10; portfolio window dressing; the flow of funds back into large caps. I now think that some institutions have had mindless standing "sell" orders for MRVC at 6 3/4 and above. Once these sell programs are completed MRVC will rise rapidly IMHO. 6. I've tried to get information on fund ownership of this stock. CDA/Spectrum says that as of 10/31/98, 133 institutions owned 37.7% of MRVC. However, when looking at individual fund ownership much of the data is as reported as of June '98. Does anyone have a source for more up-to-date fund ownership?

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (11302)	11/29/1998 3:52:00 PM
From: Jack Colton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42804

I think we will be up at least 30% by Chrismas. It's just a matter of market timing, and some of the street flowing back into the small caps. One day, the average 'Broker led investor' is going to wake up and ask why their entire life savings is invested into the same 15 big cap stocks as all of the other 'Broker led investors.' I see some real bargains in small caps right now, and MRVC is one of them. stocksheet.com inv.com rapidresearch.com coe.uncc.edu bmiquotes.com This last one shows the simple 50 day average, and it looks to me like Nov. 6th was the day it turned around. Since then, the volume has been mild, and I think the shorts (although there are still a lot - something like 1.5 times as much as last year at this time) are starting to quietly cover. viwes.com (look at the last 2 months of MVRC) jack