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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (32316)	12/1/1998 10:31:00 AM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95453

George, until we see a true reversal in the OSX, the path of least resistance is down. We have a long term trend that hasn't changed. We've had numerous head fakes that have failed miserably to reverse the course of the chart(s). We have OPEC members publicly talking about sub-$10 oil. I don't subscribe to Slider's latest buy and average down theory. I think his long term thinking is clouding his short term judgement. Demand has not been increasing. I truly think that the key is demand. Very few believe that the problems in Asia are over and for that matter, very few believe that we've turned the corner. Commodity prices in the US are hinting very strongly that we could be facing a recession in this country. As oil prices fall, more producing countries with financial difficulties will over produce, simply to bring in revenue. This will thwart the efforts of other countries to cut production. Nobody wants to cut production when other countries are opening the spiggots and stealing market share. We are in a very difficult time for the oil patch. I believe that it will take from 5 to 10 months to find a true bottom. I believe that those who buy in too early will regret their moves. I don't want to buy now if there is 20% downside left. Contrarians can stick their neck out here. I will be waiting with a large cash position for further weakness and a major change in the fundamentals. JMO, not intended as investment advice. Michael

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (32316)	12/1/1998 10:34:00 AM
From: Richard D	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Since the oil futures and OSX seem to trade heavily on technical bases, what is the significance of a triple bottom vs. a double bottom. An expert technical opinion would be appreciated. I agree with George that nearly 100% of those following the industry are bearish, including the Saudi's and Kuwaiti's. Generally that means most are near divested, of those who might divest. It looks ugly and there appears to be blood in the streets of the oil market. Richard PS Alan Chernoff is now admitting that oil has lacked support today.