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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (12844)	12/1/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: KM	Respond to of 74651

You may be right but I'm exhilirated today. I dumpster dived after this sucker all the way down yesterday and this morning. Added and added and added until I thought I was going to have to tattoo Bill Gates' face on my forehead <ggg>. I did sell some of what I bought this afternoon but the momentum was incredible.

To: johnd who wrote (12844)	12/1/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 74651

We must realize it is not in MSFT's best interest to see 100% price surge. They want the stock price to keep pace with their earnings. MSFT has been buying back it stock around 45 - 50 PE for the most part and in the low 50s PE recently. They like theie stock to trade between 50 to 60 PE under current interest rate environments. Sharp run up does 3 bad things for MSFT (a) It cannot offer stock options at reasonably attractive price to new hires and thus cannot attract talent unless incurs higher labor costs in salary (b) It cannot generate cash from selling put warrants (c) It cannot buy back its own stock. (a), (b), (c) are bad for MSFT in the long run. So if the stock hits 140ish by Jan, we should expect a very negative Greg Moeffi who will talk the stock down and the stock will be back to high 120s to low 130s level. I agree with you to some extent but investors are interested in knowing what is the stock worth not what MSFT wants it to trade. I remember June 98 earnings release - how cautious they. After that, I remember Rick Sherlund of Goldman Sachs said something like - we have heard it all before. The analysts have stopped believing the company - not giving much weight to cautionary statements anymore. They have been fooled too many times before and don't want to get fooled again (sort of like the rock group WHO's song). In addition, they must know what is happening with PEs of internet stocks so maybe a high pe is acceptable. I expect to see a stock split in January - upon earnings release or a few days later like last year

To: johnd who wrote (12844)	12/1/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: Sonki	Respond to of 74651

john, some how i knew u would be thinking along this line. it tells me you that you are overly invested in msft. these are the same kinds of fears i had when dell was galloping 10pt/day. you have to apply new pe standards w. 3 rate cuts. enjoy the ride.. i m not complaining...we deserve it. so does bill. msft is ok. it seems like a big move cuz it's a big stock ... relax.

To: johnd who wrote (12844)	12/1/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: ed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

The good things of quick surge for MSFT are : 1) With stock price surge, Microsoft can keep their best employee . Who will stay in a company whose stock price did not appreciate ? especially software engineers who have so many opportunities in those start ups, especially those internet companies ? 2) With stock split , the burden of Microsoft on employee option will be reduced significantly. Think about this way, 10000 shares of option will count 10000 / 2 billion of out standing , if the stock splits, the burden will be reduced to 10000 / 4 billion . So split is better than not split.