Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Mansfield who wrote (15766)	12/1/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

Dave, Is it fair to say that others are not jumping into this? MSFT has been trying without great success. When NSCP started to succeed in the portal business, along came AOL to throw lots of monopoly money at it. Disney has been making noises, and Lycos heads a list of non-YHOO independents. What is striking about this market is how many entrants there are given the lack of profitability. The real problem for YHOO longs to ponder is: What happens when profits start to rise? Imagine the competition then. Lots of people seem to think that portals will sort out into three or four dominant players like network television. But network television had three dominant entrants because there was limited broadcast spectrum. No such limitation here. Are there only three dominant cable TV networks? No. There may be three ahead of the others, but the marketplace as a whole is a fragmented free-for-all (though many multiple entrants do have the same owners). And in cable, unlike the Internet, there has been a limitation on space in local systems. Industry Consolidation: The benefit to the YHOO shareholders there isn't going to be the deal itself, which we have both said before would almost have to be dilutive to earnings. The benefit would be in emerging as one of a small handful of dominant players. But see paragraph above: will that necessarily happen in this marketplace? MAD DOG

To: Dave Mansfield who wrote (15766)	12/1/1998 11:43:00 PM
From: The_Guru_00	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 27307

New Member speaks his mind I recently posted on the Yahoo board and received some third grade level responses. Then I came to this board and decided to give it a try for the fee. Don't let me down with your responses. Yes I am short the stock. Without question that is the correct longer term position to hold. Management and Softbank can only keep this ponzi scheme going for so long. In the third quarter (disclosed in the third quarter 10-Q filed at the latest possible date after the market closed on Friday the 13th) Softbank accounted for 8% of total revenue. If you look back at the second quarter 10-Q, Softbank accounted for 1%. That means that Softbank accounted for about a third of the sequential growth in revenue, probably more than that on the bottom line. So as I predicted on the Yahoo boards, I believe that a significant probability exists that page views will be flat to down in December vs. September. No Starr report, holidays, competition, etc. I have written a little prayer for all shorts to reflect upon over the holidays (BTW, the prayer should work for all religions, athiests not included). Dear God, Let us give thanks to you for the damage that will be inflicted on the stock price when December page views are reported. Let us pray that management will not be able to gloss over this declive like they did with the declining CPMs last quarter. Let us pray that management will stop trying to hide the sinful incestuous relationship with Softbank deep in their SEC filings. Let us all promise to spend more time on other, better services, such as MSN, Snap, Go, Go2Net, Excite, AOL, Lycos, and many other free services. Please console those insiders who have been selling their stock since it was in the 20s by allowing the stock to return to such levels. Please help John Q. Public understand that when managment speaks about robust cash flow, a majority of it comes from interest income and tax benefits from stock option exercises. And finally, please be merciful to management and the research analysts as they litigate the inevitable lawsuits that will be filed by every bankrupt novice day trader once this stock tanks. Yours Truly.

To: Dave Mansfield who wrote (15766)	12/2/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: HG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27307

Dave....I see MadDog has answered most of your questions. I've added the additional observations only. There are x number of people who spend x hours on the net. As such, the net can support only so many portals successfully. The industry will reward the first movers. The also-rans will be absorbed or destroyed. (Note I used the words absorbed rather than consolidate/integrate. The terms are interchangeable in the context I'm using them in.) MadDog's concerns that low barriers to entry will erode this advantage seems to question the rationality of the new portal makers. Would I start a new newspaper ? Not unless I was an irrational Rupert Murdoch....and even then, the success isn't guaranteed. People like routine, people resist change, people have brand loyalty built into them - unless there are clear benefits to be derived from changing the established habits. What benefit would an alternate portal have to offer ? And I would think YHOO would incorporate the emerging products more successfully. There always are survivors and there are new companies. If companies evolve, they survive, if they don't evolve, they perish. It is true of YHOO as muc as of any other firm. But it is easier to evolve and survive than it is to create a new successful entity. <No money to be made by YHOO shareholders if they buy the other company > Are you saying YHOO shareholders will lose money or YHOO itself will lose money due to dilution in earnings ? I'm not sure I understand this point. In any case, YHOO shareholders gain long term - as you know alliances, acquisitions, mergers are not only made for short term earning potential of the combined entity. Often there may be other strategic reasons. My RR example was to illustrate the brand power and brand loyalty means a lot. I believe RR cars division is no longer owned by RR ? So effectively the car isn't a Rolls. The name has survived with the premium ! The analogy I want to draw is that once established as a leader, YHOO may well survive its competitors. However, the point most longs have is that should YHOO survive, our investmentwould have paid off. Should it fail to take off in the long term, there is money to be made in the short term. Either way, there is money to be made. More later. Regards.