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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (34785)	12/14/1998 12:46:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 94695

Arik, Thank you very much for the detailed replies on your LT Wave count(s). Your work has made a substantial contribution in prodding me to be more thorough and precise with my own. In reexamining my latest preferred LT count in this post Message 6525923 , I found an important flaw in my count... That being that my cycle wave 3 was less in % increase than both 1 & 5, a problem that voids that count. A reworking of the earlier portions ('82-'94) of the count were mandatory. Thus, after spending days and countless hours back at the drawing board, I've come to the following conclusions: 1) Most importantly for current trading strategies, my wave count since 12/94 is accurate, and has correctly predicted that this rally off the October '98 lows would terminate in the 1192 SPX area. This count suggests we have just begun a correction that will be one degree larger than the 5/4/98-10/9/98 correction. 2) You are correct in deciding on the late 1974 lows as the ending point of the correction begun 1/66. The corrective count works better for that time frame vs. '66-'82, and the new set of impulse waves higher from that point to present fit perfectly, a near impossibility otherwise. 3) You made an excellent point that the '89-'90 correction should have a more prominent placement in the wave count than '87 due to its link to the downturn in the economy at that time. The wave count I'll present takes this one step further, and gives the period of '80-'82 and its associated bitter recession an equally prominent role. Here it is, from the beginning: Supercycle 1- 1789-1835 Supercycle 2- 1835-1859 Supercycle 3- 1859-1929 Supercycle 4- 1929-1942 Supercycle 5- 1942-Present Supercycle 5 Subdivision: Cycle 1- 1942-1946 Cycle 2- 1946-1949 Cycle 3- 1949 -01/66 Cycle 4- 01/66-12/74 Cycle 5- 12/74-Present Cycle 5 Subdivision: Primary 1-12/74-12/76 Primary 2-12/76-08/82 Primary 3-08/82-10/89 Primary 4-10/89-10/90 Primary 5-10/90-Present Primary 5 Subdivision: Intermediate 1- 10/90-1/94 Intermediate 2- 1/94-12/94 Intermediate 3- 12/94-12/8/98 Intermediate 4- 12/8/98-Present So I have us just entering an Intermediate wave 4 correction, which alternates with the intermediate 2 correction from 1/94-12/94. Considering Intermediate 1 was 3.25 years, and Intermediate 3 was 4 years, Intermediate 2 was relatively brief at only 11 months. Thus, I would expect this Intermediate 4 to be a protracted correction, lasting at least 2 years and no more than 8 years. Something near the middle will probably be adequate. As for minimum and maximum depth, this correction must travel at least 165 SPX points (61.8% of the 5/4-10/8 minor corrective wave 4 move), and could travel to the top of intermediate wave 1, which is 475 SPX . So the depth range is between 1029 SPX & 475 SPX. Obviously, we'll need to monitor wave formations on the fly to try to pin the bottom, and through the use of other tools, I'm sure it can be done. This wave 4 corrective will be followed by an Intermediate 5 rally. However, Intermediate wave 1 (10/90-1/94) was only 188.34 SPX points, so depending on where the rally begins from, Intermediate wave 5 may not take us back up to these levels (all time highs) if it follows the normal course of action and is nearly identical in size to Intermediate 1. As I'm sure you are well aware, the top of wave 3 in an uptrend (and inversely for a downtrend) often marks the price extremity in a 5 wave set, so the end of Intermediate 3 on 12/8 could very well mark the final high of this bull market Now I'm sure you'd probably like to see a little more detail on a couple of the waves listed above. The first one you may be interested in is Primary 3 from 8/82-10/89. Here's the breakdown: Intermediate 1- 08/82-03/83 Intermediate 2- 03/83-06/84 Intermediate 3- 06/84-08/87 (extended) Intermediate 4- 08/87-12/87 Intermediate 5- 12/87-03/89 The other wave that would be helpful to detail is Intermediate 3 of Primary 5 from 12/94-12/8/98. Minor 1- 12/94-5/96 Minor 2- 5/96-7/96 Minor 3- 7/96-5/4/98 (minute 1[7/96-1/97]minute 2[1/97-4/97]minute 3[4/97-8/97]minute 4[8/97- 11/97]minute5[11/97-5/4/98] Minor 4- 5/4/98-10/9/98 Minor 5- 10/9/98-12/8/98 If I'm not mistaken, this count may be very close to Temple's count that you referred me to earlier, where he had us finishing a 5 of 5 of 5 of 3. We're probably on the same page, as this count has us just finishing minuette 5 of minute 5 of minor 5 of intermediate 3. It's also very similar to the last alternative you submitted to the thread. Thanks again, and any questions, thoughts or critiques are certainly welcome. Regards, David