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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (35249)	12/14/1998 1:14:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

David: Thanks for that post. What a lot of work! I am printing it out to read thoroughly. Regards, LG

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (35249)	12/14/1998 1:17:00 AM
From: TRINDY	Respond to of 94695

David, I don't know about all of the wave theory business, but I do know that your SPX 1192 call was magical. Keep up the good work. Cheers!

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (35249)	12/14/1998 1:36:00 AM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 94695

Hi David, The more I look at the possibility of the a-d line failing here just below the April - July down trendline, (making it a triple declining a-d line slammation -g-) the more it is starting to appear that the prudent thing to do is at least sidestep risk until this plays out. decisionpoint.com Vitas

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (35249)	12/14/1998 6:34:00 AM
From: stockycd	Respond to of 94695

David, WOW! So I guess this means we're going down huh? Great analysis and great post! Chris

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (35249)	12/14/1998 6:45:00 AM
From: Slide Rule	Respond to of 94695

David, Temple just posted a new count... upwards to SP-1250 & SP-1350. Last week his primary count was down to SP-850. Some flip-flop. Wonder what made him change his mind. He's offering a free site tour thru Mon 6pm.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (35249)	12/23/1998 8:15:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David, Re: LT E count. I have reviewed the charts over and over, and have a complete 1929-1998 count which I'll post later today. The '29-'32 “correction” is IMO Supercycle 4 of the Grand Super Cycle that started after the collapse of the south sea bubble, around the time of the US declaration of independence. The beginning of the grand super cycle correlates with the start of the industrial revolution. The data prior to 1914 is scanty, but from what's available one can try and correlate Supercycle 1 with the emergance of steam engine and trains, that enabled a leapfrog in capacity. Once a mature industry , the supercycle ended and led to the panic and consolidation of Supercycle 2. The following Supercycle 3 can be correlated with the invention of internal combustion and electric power, and led to 1929 and the big depression (4) once the car, the airplane and the lightbulb were mature products. A Supercycle needs an adult's lifetime to complete . Investors do not repeat that kind of behavior as long as they live. In 1929 the generation born prior to 1850 was mostly dead. In 1999, the 1929 generation (born prior to 1909) is mostly dead. The 1916-1921 period looks like an ABC consolidation which makes the cycle 4 of Supercycle 3, and 1921-1929 cycle 5 of Supercycle 3 is a very clear impulse wave with an extended 5. The big crash and burn 9/29-7/32 and the big depression is Supercycle 4, and Supercycle 5 count will follow in the next post. ATG

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (35249)	12/23/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

David, Supercycle 5 of 230 years Grandsupercycle =============================== Cycle 1 is a clear impulse from 7/32 to 5/37, in which equity prices quadrupled. t= 5 years Cycle 2 is a clear ABC correction, from 5/37 to 5/42. t= 5 years Primary a is an impulse wave until 4/38, Primary b is a rising wedge to 10/39 Primary c leads to the bottom at 5/42 with only two clear waves. Cycle 3 t= 26 1/2 years Primary 1- 5/42 to 5/46 t= 4 years Primary 2- 5/46 to 6/49 t = 3 years Primary 3- 6/49 to 7/59 t=10 years .... Intermediate 1- 6/49 to 9/51 .... Intermediate 2- 9/51 to 9/53 .... Intermediate 3- 9/53 to 8/56 .... Intermediate 4- 8/56 to 12/57 .... Intermediate 5- 12/57 to 7/59 Primary 4- 8/59 to 9/60 t= 1 year Primary 5- 9/60 to 11/68 t= 8 years .... Intermediate 1- 9/60 to 12/61 .... Intermediate 2- 12/61 to 6/62 .... Intermediate 3- 6/62 to 2/66 .... Intermediate 4- 2/66 to 10/66 .... Intermediate 5- 10/66 to 11/68 Cycle 4 t= 6 years Primary a - 11/68 to 6/70 Primary b- 6/70 to 12/72 Primary c- 12/72 to 9/74 Cycle 5 t= 24 years, so far. Primary 1 - 9/74 to 11/80. t= 6 years Primary 2 - 11/80 to 7/82 t= 2 years Primary 3 - 8/82 to 10/89 t= 7 years .....Intermediate 1 - 8/82 to 6/83 .... Intermediate 2- 6/83 to 6/84 .... Intermediate 3- 6/84 to 8/87 ........... Minor 1- 6/84 to 7/85 t=13 months ........... Minor 2- 7/85 to 9/85 t= 3 months ........... Minor 3- 9/85 to 7/86 t=12 months ........... Minor 4- 7/86 to 9/86 t= 3 months ........... Minor 5- 9/86 to 8/87 t= 11 months .... Intermediate 4- 8/87 to 12/87 .... Intermediate 5- 12/87 to 10/89 Primary 4 - 10/89 to 10/90 t= 1 year Primary 5 - 10/90 to present. t= 8 years and counting. Two notes for the last decade 1. The diminishing power of the Dow 30 In the last century, the DJIA was the leading index, representing the top blue chips of the US of A. But in the last decade it, and the NYSE at large, no longer give the full picture of US top equities. Technology stocks gained tremendous value over the last decade, but the Dow is still packed with traditional industries (UK, IP, AA, CAT,GT) with market cap of $13-25 Billion (add S, ALD, EK) and heavily weighted towards the aerospace (GE, UTX, BA) and automotive (GM, CAT, GT) industries. Only 19 of the Dow 30 are in the top 100 market cap companies of the S&P500. Only two companies represent the computer industry (IBM and HWP) and none software. INTC (IPO 1971) and MSFT (IPO 1986) had a market cap of over $20 Billion each as early as 1992. In the last 3 years a bunch of 4 letters issues have joined the 1st tier of big caps. What I'm saying is, the Dow is no longer a good representation of the big caps / blue chips. The S&P 500 companies have a combined market cap of roughly half all US equity markets, and IMO portray a much better picture of the big caps. It is a capitalization weighted index vs. the Dollar weighted Dow. IMO the chart of the SPX should be used at least since 1990 as the “market” chart. 2. The decreasing visibility On the last ten years chart there is a decrease is the number of pretty EW formations that were plentiful in past decades. For example - the period from 12/94 to 12/95 shows a smooth rise with almost no waves at all, and the period from 7/96 to 7/98 is full of corrections that clutter the image and makes it hard to determine which correction belongs to which scale. Just compare the ‘82-'87 period to the ‘92-‘97 period and see that the former had a much more organized EW pattern. Furthermore, the nature of EW makes hindsight an important tool for determining the scale of each wave, and as we near the present our hindsight diminishes. After saying all that, here's the count for Primary 5 of Cycle 5 that began in 10/90: .... Intermediate 1- 10/90 to 1/94 t= 3 years .... Intermediate 2- 1/94 to 12/94 t= 11 months .... Intermediate 3- 12/94 to 7/98 t= 3 1/2 years ........... Minor 1- 12/94 to 2/96 t=14 months ........... Minor 2- 2/96 to 7/96 t= 5 months ........... Minor 3- 7/96 to 10/97 t=15 months [ I had a great difficulty with this one. Couldn't figure out the 3-4/97 correction vs. the 8/97 correction, until I have concluded that the 8/97 Dow top was not a MARKET top, and the 10/97 SPX top is the correct end of this wave. This resulted in a much better internal count which follows-] .................Minute 1 - 7/24/96 to 2/18/97 (a clear and pretty EW count inside this one) .................Minute 2 - 2/19/97 to 4/11/97 .................Minute 3 - 4/14/97 to 8/6/97 .................Minute 4 - 8/7/97 to 8/29/98 .................Minute 5 - 8/29/97 to 7/10/97 ........... Minor 4- 10/7/97 to 10/27/97 t= 1 months ........... Minor 5- 10/28/97 to 7/17/98 t= 9 months .................Minute 1 - 10/28/97 to 12/5/97 .................Minute 2 - 12/5/97 to 1/12/98 .................Minute 3 - 1/12/98 to 4/6/98 .................Minute 4 - 4/7/98 to 6/15/98 .................Minute 5 - 6/16/98 to 7/17/98 .... Intermediate 4- 7/20/98 to 10/8/98 [or 8/30/98?] .... Intermediate 5- 10/9/98 [or 9/1/98?] to present. Now we have to figure out the scale of the move from 10/9 till now. Is it Minor 1, Minor 1 and 2 starting 3, or the whole chopped Intermediate ?