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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/2/1998 8:45:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ============================ Welcome all to this new thread. Earlier this morning I got a CLASS 2 BUY on the DOW, when the DOW was near the lows for the day, and we closed about 100 points higher. The NEW HIGHs actually improved a little and the BANKS and AIRLINEs were up. Even though the market closed negative, there were some positives in the market which gave hints that this short-term pullback may be over. If todays lows were the lows for this pullback, then the the DOW corrected about 4.5% off of the highs. I felt that this pullback was stronger and quicker than orignially expected; therefore I am leaning towards the possibility that we may be forming a STAIRSTEP again, with possibly a 200-300 oscillation range. If 8950 was the low of this STAIRSTEP, then lets say the upper limit of this STAIRSTEP should be in the 9150-9250 range. Seeya

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/2/1998 9:39:00 PM
From: Robert Rose	Respond to of 99985

Hello LG: Likewise, congrats on your new thread. As long as you and donald keep posting, believe me, i am happy as a clam... Again, best wishes.

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/2/1998 10:12:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Respond to of 99985

LG, Don and All: I think this is going to be one of the most informative threads for market direction on SI... Don's Stair Step may be already happening... The McClellan Oscillator continues downward... The McClellan Summation Index has now turned down... Since this is an average it takes longer to react to market conditions... So, its direction is significant... Right now it's down... Also, New Lows continue to be above 40 and New Highs aren't moving in the 100 to 200 area... Lastly, S&P 500 MoneyFlow is negative... As such, I think we may have more downside ahead of us... Jim

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/2/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi LG, Congrats on the new thread! Would like to start out by volunteering to post the scans I run nitely (when not off somewhere fishing). I might say that the scans are run on Quotes Plus 2. This company provides the best end of day data available anywhere. Anyone who wants a great end of day data provider with good charts at a great price can get the information here....http://208.240.130.216/ My numbers will differ from others because I scan ONLY common stocks (no warrants nor closed end funds). I primarily use the scan results for: 1) Find trend changes before the charts indicate a change and 2) Divergences between the internals and the indices I will be glad to hear any suggestions. Stocks over their 200 Day Moving Average NYSE NASD NASD100 S&P100 S&P400 S&P 500 S&P600 R2000 04/21/98 61.2% 48.9% 71.0% 86.0% 77.3% 82.4% 72.0% NA 07/17/98 49.7% 37.4% 62.0% 71.0% 56.5% 65.2% 49.0% NA 11/23/98 30.1% 21.6% 63.0% 64.0% 43.0% 53.2% 32.0% 27.7% 11/24/98 30.2% 21.6% 62.0% 60.0% 42.0% 52.6% 30.8% 27.5% 11/25/98 29.8% 21.8% 64.0% 61.0% 43.3% 52.0% 32.8% 28.3% 11/27/98 29.7% 21.3% 62.0% 62.0% 43.8% 52.8% 32.3% 28.2% 11/30/98 28.4% 22.2% 59.0% 56.0% 38.3% 48.2% 33.5% 28.9% 12/01/98 28.4% 22.4% 59.0% 56.0% 39.0% 48.4% 34.0% 29.5% 12/02/98 28.0% 22.5% 59.0% 58.0% 38.5% 50.0% 34.8% 29.4% I will set up a site in a few days for anyone who wants to download the spreadsheet. It is in Excel 97 format. Monty

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/2/1998 10:22:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Congrats on the new thread. To have Donald, Dennis, Haim and you all on one thread is a great treat for all of us lurkers! Oh yeah, and you too Beebs<G> Look forward to saving time here. Or, maybe not. Now there are three threads to follow <VBG> challo

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/2/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: Chris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

would love to contribute..

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/2/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, I will be happy to contribute what I can from time to time. For those that don't know, I am a beginning S&P Futures trader and have been at it for about six months now. I paper traded for quite a while, did well and moved to real money a couple months back. Right now I am only short term trading -- meaning trades lasting no longer than a couple hours, most of the time a lot less. I am getting better at defining and determining short term moves during the day sessions. I would love to be able to positional trade it and leave it on for several days, if not weeks, but don't yet have the confidence or the indicators to do so. Most of the stuff I have is compiled from other thread contributors and I take it and adapt it to what works for me. My basic methodology has not been abandoned, but now is used more for confirmation of trend during a trade than for entries and exits. The basic methodology was adapted from ideas from several SI particpants and I put the indicators together and put my own spin on it. Currently I am using MACD and TICK divergences more so for entries and exits are still somewhat up in the air, but I am trying to develop a better exit strategy. There are a great number of great SPOO traders on the threads. At this point I would not even pretend to put myself in their category of SPOO trader. Many participate on the Systems and Strategies for Trading Futures thread. Patrick Slevin is one of the best I have run across due to his experience and his past knowledge. He has an uncanny ability to digest what is happening in the market at any given moment and understand what it means for the direction of the SPOOS before confirming signs are seen in any of the indicators. I am using some of Ground Zero's stuff to try to develop a longer term positional system. One of the things he has taught us is the Andrew's Pitchfork method of determining support and resistance points. I believe there is a lot more for me to learn about that method, but I have the very basics down. Without going into a lot of detail on these methods at this time I see support on the SPOOS at 1155-1157 and rising. If that level does not hold, the next level would be the upper 30's to low 40's. These points are determined off of short term forks and are not 100% reliable nor are the forks necessarily tested yet and therefore maybe they are not active as I understand the methodology. The longer term fork can be seen on this chart, courtesy of Frank Skepton. The longer term fork has been tested and as you can see on the chart the upside tine of the fork held this latest rally at the new highs in late November. geocities.com Current upside forks are at 1190 and 1200 or so. My bias, so you know, for now is down. I try not to let that color my thoughts, but it will nonetheless. I don't see any sense to the current valuations and think this thing is way overdone. As always, I can and probably will be proven wrong and so be it. I expect more downside and think the highs are in. Right now Globex SPOOS are down 12.50 points which translates roughly to 100 DOW points. It will be interesting to see in the morning where the SPOOS end up in the night session. Currently I am flat even though my bias is lower. Too bad. -Scott

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/2/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 99985

LG .. Your mail box must be overflowing. This looks like it'll be a great thread. An FA tid bit: I'm expecting to see the market drop for a little while here. If it does then: Lately there has been a linkage between US consumer spending and the stock market. When the market is up, the US consumer spends his/her profits from the IRA by way of putting on more debt on the credit card. So what's this got to do with the price of tea?? Well .. there has been word floating around that retailers are supposed to have the best Christmas shopping season ever this year. If the market is down during the holiday season, that perception will have to be changed hard and fast. For what it's worth... Gersh

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/2/1998 11:02:00 PM
From: Chris	Respond to of 99985

the following is a market chart denoting the signals that my system has created for this year. Along the principle, of "trading the trend", it's vital to watch the market as a whole. The simple idea is : it's much easier to swim with the river current than against. here is the chart (not updated, so a couple days late) geocities.com regular website: geocities.com

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/3/1998 6:33:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, Congrats. On the BK I posted that the bottom should come Friday but might have been as soon as yesterday. With Globex down the equivalent of 80 DOW points this am, looks like Friday might be the day. My 4 day forecaster (proprietary) tells me that. VGY almost looks like it is trying to fill out a H&S neckline. That sounds ominous. With an up week next week the end could come as early as mid Dec 1998... for a possibly VERY strong sell-off. How can you tell market direction? While long term MAs help to a certain extent and the TEMAs (triple exponential smoothed MAs) are perhaps more responsive, using the Universal Oscillator, TRIX and even the Accumulation Swing Index can help. Right now these are telling me we are in a pull-back and not a reversal in market direction. HOWEVER, we get a VERY strong sell-off in mid-Dec, and that may change everything. Watch this space and remember, BWDIK? Good luck, Bill

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/3/1998 8:16:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Interesting idea for a thread, LG. I hope to be able to post on occasion, if something seems worthy of mention.

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/3/1998 6:50:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

beara's MDA for LG's kids. points to ponder 1. 4/8 year cycles bottom rallies are always met with skepticism from the press, public and financial media, not historic bullishness and calls for dow 10,000. Need a wall of worry to climb, apparently we have climbed the wall. 2. teepee formed on Dow while speculative nasdaq pulled in buyers who missed the rally to buy the last dip. 3. Breadth was strong into 11/6 creating an environment for analysts to call a plurality breadth advance off a 4/8 year oversold bottom, the breadth has a major divergence from that peak - 200+ on the Mcoscillator to the breadth peak of 11/6 to 50 on 11/23. Checking thru former cycle bottoms I did not find this kind of divergence. 4. Echo indicator as posted to Sew on Saturday perfect. Rampant speculation in junk internets have called the top. 5. The bull case for a new bull market necessitates a run to new highs a retest of the neckline or base on light volume and an ensuing rally. While we had this case in the speculative tech, drug, biotech and a few others the broader market has reversed off a double top formation on above avg. volume. 6. On this decline put/call ratios remain in bearish territory as they did during the first month off the 7/20 top showing complacency. bb

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	6/7/1999 12:57:00 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 99985

Rationality Reigns Supreme. Keep up the good work. JM

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	6/8/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: John T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Are these two related? 1. Spike in TWX to 5.987% AND 2. NEWS -- MW 13:21 US SENATOR INHOFE THREATENS TO BLOCK SUMMERS TREASURY NOMINATION ON UNRELATED ISSUE--REUTER.

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	9/23/1999 9:14:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Respond to of 99985

Would you guys kindly stop writing posts for a while, so I can catch up? Sheesh, I just went back under my blanket for a minute to have dinner and now I've got 50 more to read!<ggg>

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	10/6/1999 3:33:00 AM
From: fut_trade	Respond to of 99985

Short Interest on the Nasdaq is now at an all-time high. fortunecity.com

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	12/2/1999 8:10:00 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Larry, Congratulations on a great thread. Vitas

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	11/12/2000 8:28:12 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

O/T Since I have not seen a mention this weekend, I'd like to extend a public note of thanks to all the Veterans who look in here, and thank all those who have given their lives in honor of this country. Your service and sacrifice is not unappreciated, and is with me every day as I struggle to appreciate and make the most of my good fortune, freedom and liberty. Thank you all again. Sincerely, John Madarasz

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	11/23/2000 2:55:15 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

O/T - Thought for the day One day an expert in time management was speaking to a group of business students and, to drive home a point, used an illustration those students will never forget. As he stood in front of the group of high powered overachievers he said, "Okay, time for a quiz." Then he pulled out a one-gallon, wide-mouthed Mason jar and set it on the table in front of him. Next he produced about a dozen fist-sized rocks and carefully placed them, one at a time, into the jar. When the jar was filled to the top and no more rocks would fit inside, he asked, "Is this jar full?" Everyone in the class said, "Yes." "Really" he said? He reached under the table and pulled out a bucket of gravel. Then he dumped some gravel in and shook the jar causing pieces of gravel to work themselves down into the space between the big rocks. Then he asked the group once more, "Is the jar full?" By this time the class was on to him. "Probably not," one of them answered. "Good!" he replied. He reached under the table and brought out a bucket of sand. He started dumping the sand in the jar and it went into all of the spaces left between the rocks and the gravel. Once more he asked the question, "Is this jar full?" "No!" the class shouted. Once again he said, "Good." Then he grabbed a pitcher of water and began to pour it in until the jar was filled to the brim. Then he looked at the class and asked, "What is the point of this illustration?" One eager beaver raised his hand and said, "The point is, no matter how full your schedule is, if you try really hard you can always fit some more things in it!" "No," the speaker replied, "that's not the point. The truth this illustration teaches us is: If you don't put the big rocks in first, you'll never get them in at all." What are the 'big rocks' in your life? Your children; Your loved ones; Your education; Your dreams; A worthy cause; Teaching or mentoring others; Doing things that you love; Time for yourself; Your health; Your significant other. Remember to put these BIG ROCKS in first or you'll never get them in at all. If you sweat the little stuff (the gravel, the sand) then you'll fill your life with little things you worry about that don't really matter, and you'll never have the real quality time you need to spend on the big, important stuff (the big rocks). So, tonight, or in the morning, when you are reflecting on this short story, ask yourself this question: What are the 'big rocks' in my life? Then, put those in your jar first. __________________________ Have a great Thanksgiving everyone! Best Regards, John M.

To: HairBall who wrote (1)	1/5/2001 8:26:11 PM
From: philipsmc175	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Long term lurker with first post on this board. Has anyone been actively tracking market stats and tracking MAs of new highs/lows and advances/declines ala the methods Justin Mamis describes in his book. I have been keeping the numbers for the DOW and COMP but have yet to determine if this is a worthwhile exercise in assessing market direction. Thanx