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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (189)	12/3/1998 3:42:00 PM
From: Woz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Trey: The Koreans ramped up production from 1/2 capacity to full capacity two weeks ago, it takes fours weeks for the supply to get here...watch for plunging prices in two weeks!

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (189)	12/3/1998 5:04:00 PM
From: uu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Trey: > i just dont get it...its like people have sublimated their stupidity regarding the net stocks by investing in semi and semi eq stocks. Well if you think about it, it is really not that difficult. Just like the last turn of the century the world is introduced with something totally new. Internet computing will be the basis of doing business in the 21st century. Now considering that stock prices usually represent the conditions of the underlying business 6-8 months in advance, the current run up in the semis is just the beginning of the huge advances to come. Shorting semis at this time is similar to standing in front of a fast going train trying to experiement if the train would stop if it sees you standing in front of it!! The next semi upturn cycle will start in early 1999 and will last much longer than the previous one we had in 94-96 (thanks to the internet computing model). As for the net stocks run up (which in most cases is absolutely idiotic at this time) all I can say is stock prices do not reflect the present conditions, but rather what to come in 6 to 8 months. Having said that, the run up in net stocks is more like what to come in 2-3 years from now! Regards, Addi Jamshidi

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (189)	12/3/1998 5:52:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

AMAT, MU ... NVLS -- they'll all be in the can by Feb or March if not sooner. Anybody seen this happen before? -- raise your hand. Business is even worse now than when the bottom fell out after the great run in '95. Difference now is the whole economy is slowing, trade deficit is huge and getting worse, these companies aren't making big profits right now, but they are priced like they will be very shortly. SOXX will dip below 200 early next year.

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (189)	12/3/1998 8:34:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I agree with your outlook on MU. I wanted puts when it bounced to 50 on the open but then got phone called and meetings as usual to ruin the buy in. There was a piece last night that two of the Asian competitors are going in together to develop a 1 Gig DRAM. Think of the charts you could run with that. Anyway, the reason I posted was be careful since the X-mas lies have just begun on MU and CS Boston just gave it a target of 65. MU puts are good for short term trades right now but it might just defy gravity for a little while longer. (missed out on my GTW puts too, ouch) I haven't made it all the way through the posts tonight yet but incase no one else mentions it. There is a possible H&S forming on the daily DOW chart that would begin forming the right shoulder if we bounce soon. This would forecast a fall to another left shoulder formed around 8450 that if we bounced again to finish out a 2nd right shoulder at that level, would forecast a fall to our old lows. It is too early to say it will happen but .... Good Luck, Lee