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Technology Stocks : Concurrent Computer (CCUR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Christiaan McDonald who wrote (5861)	12/3/1998 6:09:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21143

Interesting article. Two things I picked up on were: "And do you really want to string a line from your PC to your set-top, which are usually in different rooms? Probably not." That is nonsense. I have cable modem service now and have a cable line running from my PC to my basement where a signal splitter was put in to join with the line going to my TV in another room. What's the big deal if the line goes from my computer to the box on my TV instead of my basement? "The bottom line: Service with all the bells and whistles could be very patchy for a few years yet." That has been my key issue all along. If this is the case, then I see no reason why someone like a SUNW won't decide next year to throw $100 million R&D to develop a server and software to capture the lion's share of the market, despite CCUR's current lead -- or buy CCUR. I do not think that whether there will be a large VOD market one day is much in doubt any longer. I am still concerned about CCUR's role possibly being limited to the point man who proves the concept -- for someone else's benefit.

To: Christiaan McDonald who wrote (5861)	12/4/1998 5:07:00 AM
From: Goodboy	Respond to of 21143

This article proves that the cable MSO's need to unveil their digital networks and begin commercial deployment. While the MSO's have attempted to keep this whole roll out secretive as to timing and location, the concept is starting to backfire when you have articles written like this. The writer of this article had nothing to do and thought he would pour some water on the digital parade while the cable love fest is still in full swing in Anahiem. His logic stinks and his facts are off. I am sure if SFA were allowed to, they would invite this skepitcal reporter to see an in the field home demo of all the services he has mentioned. Of course, for the reasons we already know, they can't do that. The MSO's will bring in the media when they are ready to scale up commerically and get a benefit from the publicity. If they are not ready to scale up in several markets, then all they will get from the media publicity is a headache as subscribers call in and demand they get the new box and servies that were shown on CNN or ABC news last night. Time Warner alone has over 8 million subscribers that are fully upgraded to 750 mhz two way fiber/coax. Adelphia, Marcus and Cox are building agressively. Mediaone and Comcast are not that far from Time Warner in their digital upgrades. There are three parts to this process. First is the upgrade of the cable lines themselves and the plant (connectors, routers, etc). The second is the installatin of the digital head end system that creates the two way path, digital encryption, compression, bandwidth management, etc. Last is the installation of specfic hardware and software applications that will run on the Digital head end system. This is where CCUR and Prasara come in. Mediaone and Time Warner have well clustered cable systems which will allow them to leverage off of the head end equipment to a larger base than some other MSO's. Based on the SFA systems that will be in place by year end and based on the "already upgraded" cable plant that was in place before SFA installed the digital head end, 16 million homes will be fully digital two way enabled. That is a very big market in 1999 and it will get much bigger in 2000. It is funny how this reporter calls it set top box hype. Why is it hype? The answer is because it hasn't happened yet and he hasn't seen the services and the box with his own eyes. We don't have to look back to far on this thread to find many of the currently posting (and surprisingly postive) SI members who said that CCUR was all hype and would not have a viable product or would be out manuvered by other larger or more connected server companies. It should be clear at this point that it was not hype. I even remember a bunch of banter on this board when Intertainer was launched and claimed they would offer VOD. Many believed they were CCUR's competition. Now they are a customer. I think that will happen again with others. Digital services are up an running in at least 7 cities and for 3 different MSO's. Many more will get launched in the first quarter. SFA will be the first to tell you that once the beta tests are done, the only thing that would slow down the roll out would be their inabilty to deliver set top boxes. Between SFA and Pioneer, they will crank out 1 to 2 million boxes next year and GI will join the party in the 3rd quarter. By then this reporter will be saying "the set top box lived up to the hype". The only problem is there was no hype, just reality. Reality will hit home when the MSO's allow zipper head reporters like this into a digital subscribers home and lets them test drive the services and get feedback from the users. Then it will be the reporter who will do the hyping. If anyone here has used WEB TV, you know it sucks. What the Explorer 2000 will allow on the set will impress the most skeptic of the skeptics. Speed, fantastic services, great picture quality and a huge programing selection. You remember the "I want my MTV" ads. This will be a lot bigger and the MSO's know it. They don't want the lines filled with unhappy customers who they can't deliver the services too yet. This will be a good problem in the future.