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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: uu who wrote (205)12/3/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 99985
 
>>And we have not yet even started the next upturn cycle<<

We agree on that point, Addi.

Accelerating earnings can justify a larger multiple, but I don't see this happening for the semis. Perhaps I don't have the right crystal ball.

Of couse MU doesn't have any earnings and hasn't for a while.



To: uu who wrote (205)12/3/1998 6:15:00 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 99985
 
Not true for AMAT.

bigcharts.com

Click on PE for lower indicator.



To: uu who wrote (205)12/3/1998 6:46:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Respond to of 99985
 
Addi, with all due respect to your prognosis of substantial technological advances which I prescribe for, you are missing one important point which is that there are about 3 billion people out there still living in 100 years ago standards but have a mind and understanding as ours.

They will "krank" out every bit of equipment and semi part at 1/2 the price in the US.

The advancement of the Internet and other means of communication brought about to the globalization of the world economy.

Therefore the standart of living will find it's equilibrium below the one in the US or Japan.,

The real world meaning is technological advancement with much much slimmer margins and a slight deteoration in our standard of living, until we will find new global equilibrium or in other words DEFLATION in most of the world.

I remember your optimism from the LSI tread a year or more ago wen LSI was trading in the low 30th's. BTW you noted my remark to buy LSI aroud $15 4 days ago? (some bragging does not hurt <G>)

BWDIK
Haim



To: uu who wrote (205)12/3/1998 7:07:00 PM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Addi,

The manor in which the SEMI's popped today reminded me of manic buying, but nowhere as drastic as the internuts.

I an not a fundamentalist at all and know very little about the semi's but from purely a technical point of view, it appears that the semi's are going parobolic. These parobolic movements are often SELL SIGNALs at least for the mid-term(30 days).

It may be prudent to be cautious, especially since the overall market is starting to show some weakness.

Congrats on your successes with them.

Seeya