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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Anthony who wrote (1917)	12/3/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: rich evans	Respond to of 2542

For a big down day in the market, the response of all the ECM's was quite something. What happens if the market in general has a big rally? Rich

To: Michael Anthony who wrote (1917)	12/7/1998 12:48:00 AM
From: Peaches	Respond to of 2542

I couldn't agree more. However, do you think this recent runup in price is due to stock split announcement and now maybe a little pullback is in order? Not sure if I should increase my position now or wait for split to occur?

To: Michael Anthony who wrote (1917)	12/14/1998 7:43:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2542

Solectron earnings out... and they look good. I didn't listen to the conference call, but I posted some brief comments on the Solectron thread: Message 6832867 Tomorrow is Jabil's turn. Regarding the performance of the EMS sector over the last several months... well its been outstanding, particularly for the larger cap issues. I am gatting a bit concerned though about the connection between this sector and the SOX index. I don't understand why this sector should rise and fall in connection with the semiconductor companies, but there does seem to be some historical correlation. Even more confusing is that the SOX contains semiconductor equipment manufacturers. The reason I mention this, is that the SOX got reamed today but good. As an example, Intel was down over 4 points, and Applied Materials and KLA-Tencor were down about 3 points each. What makes me feel worse, is that I'm not very optimistic about the forward performance of these three stocks (for example) over the next six months. I think the SOX has run too fast too soon. I expect the microprocessor and memory stocks will correct in the 1st or 2nd Q, and that the semiconductor equipment stocks will get pounded down about 30-40% from recent highs. If the EMS sector correlates as in the past, then the SOX could put a drag on the sector over the next six months. Hopefully the understanding of this sector has improved to the point that the EMS stocks won't be slaughtered along with the SOX, the way it happened last spring. The individual companies in the EMS sector should show some significantly improving top and bottom line results over the next twelve months. This is JMO, and I would like to hear others. Paul