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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (280)	12/3/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

<<You're assuming that the variance in secular growth rate is the most important determinant predicting supply and demand. It isn't. It's the variance in areal density versus that predicted by Moore's law. This past year, areal density has increased 100% versus the 60% historical average. >> Actually, there's no law that states that demand grows at the rate of Moore's law which states 60% growth in supply at a constant price. I would contend that demand will soon become insatiable again partly due to cable modems, but more due to demand for audio/video storage. I just bought a 300 CD changer which is great but is nothing compared to the conceptual flexibility and user friendliness of being able to put it all on a disk drive. I find the introduction of digital VCRs extremely exciting as well. These products are right around the corner and, I believe, could be HUGE. Which raises a question for the DD experts out there. What would it take for disk drives to meet the shock requirements for use as CD replacements or supplements in an automobile? Call me an optimist on DD capacity demand. Let me predict that these two products will revolutionize the broadcast industry by obsoleting much of the advertising which currently supports it. Later, Z

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (280)	12/4/1998 9:59:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

Lawrence, You have mentioned twice that GB capacity is the relevant number to look at when analyzing capacity related issues. I don't agree. Unit productive capacity is the relevant number to look at. It captures all the necessary supply/demand and capacity issues related to disk drives. After all drives are still sold in units! Just because advances in technology allow the same plant to produce twice the GBs this year when compared to last doesn't mean that “capacity” has doubled. As an example; if the same resources this year now produce a 20 GB drive it does not satisfy two users who each demand a 10 GB drive. Areal density is more analogous to quality issues in a product like an automobile. It may eventually effect unit demand by slowing the replacement cycle but this is all. Don't fall into the trap of analyzing a discrete product like you would one that is infinitely dividable. -Robert