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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (6358)	12/6/1998 5:29:00 AM
From: Bruce A. Bowman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Well, that's nice of you to say, Tom, but look closer at the returns in 1997. I made the significant gains by September 1997 and have been fighting to keep them ever since! I had the double (100%) 9/30/97; 7/31/98 that moved to 109% for a gain of 9% in 11 months. 9/30/97 to 11/30/98 saw an 18% gain in 15 months. While I'm delighted that I had the initial gains in 1997, I still have the feeling that I should have done more to maintain those levels. Of course the EGRP debacle caused a significantly greater drop since I hadn't taken chips off the table. In addition I should have have been able to buy shares all the way to the 10/sh EGRP low which would have given me a large portion of the triple that followed over the next 7 weeks. "woulda', coulda', shoulda'" never put profits in anyones account, but it will certainly cause me to handle a similar opportunity in a different fashion. My suspicion is that the ~15%/yr gain from late '97 to late '98 is more realistic. So for kicks, I just computed the average TTM (trailing 12 months) return and found that it's currently running 24% and has a range for any of the 12 month periods of anywhere from +63% to -24%. If I could count on that as a typical AIM return, I think I'd be a very happy AIM camper! The reality, though, is that we're still in an incredible bull market and as we all (should) know, anyone can look like a genius in a bull market! The test will come if we experience a repeat of the 1970s, especially 1973-1974 and 1977-1978. Finding a good horse to ride then will be a real challenge!! :-) Bruce