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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (382)	12/4/1998 2:27:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I think several things will effect it, reversals in the dollar if strong, with the market now moving the inverse of the dollar, --------- The Fed adding liquid helps, and they are under pressure to keep the market up (at home) as to limit last minute tax loss selling. --------- The longer term TA is for more downside , ( particularly if we look at it from a global view ) ..I prefer to trade when both the long and short term TA have the same direction. -------- In one way I got it right with the buy recommendation around the 1st of Sept..but had I seen the full picture I would have said Buy Japan,,the real gains have been there, and opposed to the garbage the pundits put out. With the run up in the Yen, it makes their "stocks" worth a lot more dollars, while the pundits just focus people on the Nikkie225, we need to remember that's in YEN a good thing to watch is the webs while they may not track exactly in line they do take into account currency moves..compare them to the SPY..95 to 117.25 = gain 23.4% EWJ 7.685 to 10.25 = 33.3% gain.. So japan has beat us by 10% , since the bottom and if all things were equal on the currency front..our real gain off the bottom is only 13% not a lot;; considering we had a 20% fall, & that takes 25% up to make up, so in global terms we have got back about half our loss. We are still in a bear market if you use "global" dollars instead of greenbacks. While this may take time to come home and bite us on the ass, it will. I warned people last year to watch out if the dollar fell, as there are many forces in the market that do not wish us well. Normally I'm an old buy the dips person, and tend to be more bullish than bearish..but not now. Jim