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Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dave Mansfield who wrote (15876)12/5/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: Dave Mansfield  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
Happy Girl,

Try the whole Y2k sector, ZITL, VIAS, DDIM and others. A perfect example of hype and dump in the 90's.

Dave



To: Dave Mansfield who wrote (15876)12/5/1998 2:36:00 PM
From: HG  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
 
I think RE market may not be a fair analogy since the industry is not new and prices move far too slowly. An airline industry would be a better example in the early 30s, but I will have to do a bit of research for that ! But RealEstate - well we've moved around so much.

RE - Japanese market is grossly overvalued. Indian too. Housing in both places is substandard and offers very little value for money.When we decided to buy our first house, we waited for 3 years, chasing prices. Then took the plunge when everyone said it was "terrible" buy. Bought ourselves a nice property in the upmarket area - could have waited for the "bottom" but decided not to risk more. 1.5 years later, the property was priced 3 times ! Bottom fishing may have got us a *bit* extra, but was risky as well. The growth plateaued (of course) but we still hold it, wouldn't sell it for anything. Today, 6 years later, it is worth worth 5 times what I paid for it.

One look at San Francisco/Bay Area properties - it frightened even a hardened pro like myself. But it provides for a great investment. We came here last year - everyone said houses were overvalued, that prices would come down....wish we hadn't waited. Of course you have to compare apples to apples, so you cannot compare property in Uganda with YHOO, being a leader, it deserves to be compared with the leader in any industry...

I believe YHOO will continue to evolve, hence the belief that growth will continue. I think the management team has their finger on the pulse and can anticipate demand, supply extremely well. As long as they roll out products that appeal to masses, in a way that appeals to masses, I will continue to invest in YHOO. I'll be the first one out when they become arrogant and/or complacent.

How can you explain an average 1/4 acre, 30 yr old house being sold for over 600K in CA and the larger/newer house being sold for around 200K in Rayleigh-Durham ? CA provides better earning potential and location. And that makes a difference. YHOO is firmly positioned as well, with good earning potential. Although the analogy is not very good, I do believe value is what people are willing to pay for a....commodity ? Just a different perception to yours. As long it helps me make money legally, ethically, who cares if it is not taught at Harvard.

PS: Are you a long term short - will you keep shorting the stock or will you eventually establish a long position ? At what point, if I may ask ?



To: Dave Mansfield who wrote (15876)12/5/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: Original Mad Dog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
Dave,

You mentioned that it would take between 8 to 15 quarters of year-to-year growth in the triple digit area to convince you of a fair valuation. A couple of questions/observations:

1. Are you planning on counting the past three of four quarters in that number? I believe the sequential quarterly growth all year is no less than 30 or 31 for any quarter, which easily yields year-to-year triple digit readings. If you count those, they only have to keep it up until 1st quarter 2000 to make a believer out of you. If not, you're talking 2 to 4 years out from right now.

2. As you know, I share many of your concerns/opinions about YHOO's valuation and what I think we both view as a limited upside from here for some time to come. But I have to ask you, not just in connection with YHOO but any company emerging from the woods and showing early promise: If you have to wait for 8 to 15 quarters of phenomenal growth, are you ever going to get a chance at one of these companies at a low valuation? By then, isn't everybody already on board? My own view is that you might be better off taking high-risk capital and speculating on those which, in your gut instinct opinion or belief, have the best shot at being a home run. You'll be wrong most of the time, but when you're right, it makes up for it. Seems to me that the only other way to make money on these things is to short them, which is itself a high risk proposition as many have discovered, and hope you time it right.

MAD DOG