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Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Original Mad Dog who wrote (15881)	12/5/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: Dave Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

MadDog let me take my best shot at your questions. Not sure if I totally understand them, but I'll try. >>1. Are you planning on counting the past three of four quarters in that number? I believe the sequential quarterly growth all year is no less than 30 or 31 for any quarter, which easily yields year-to-year triple digit readings. If you count those, they only have to keep it up until 1st quarter 2000 to make a believer out of you. If not, you're talking 2 to 4 years out from right now.<< Starting now, comparing each quarter to the quarter twelve months previous is what I speak of. Hence, beginning in the quarter ending 12/31/98 I would need to see 100%+ growth in revenues/earnings over the quarter ending 12/31/97. And then I'd need to see such growth for the next 7-14 quarters. I would suspect Yahoo might be able to pull it off for the next 4 or 5 quarters. And possibly more if Softbank keeps pumping advertising dollars into them. But 12-17 more quarters? I think not. >>2. As you know, I share many of your concerns/opinions about YHOO's valuation and what I think we both view as a limited upside from here for some time to come. But I have to ask you, not just in connection with YHOO but any company emerging from the woods and showing early promise: If you have to wait for 8 to 15 quarters of phenomenal growth, are you ever going to get a chance at one of these companies at a low valuation? By then, isn't everybody already on board? My own view is that you might be better off taking high-risk capital and speculating on those which, in your gut instinct opinion or belief, have the best shot at being a home run. You'll be wrong most of the time, but when you're right, it makes up for it. Seems to me that the only other way to make money on these things is to short them, which is itself a high risk proposition as many have discovered, and hope you time it right.<< This one's tougher MadDog. Remember, I'm using my rationale for an overpriced stock, not and underpriced one. Anyway, putting the shoe on the other foot, to hit a home run on a phenomenal growth stock, my first hope would be to get into it before such a runup as Yahoo has experienced. Looking at Yahoo 12-24 months ago, I might have considered it a good buy. Sorry it didn't hit my radar screen back then. My hats off to those who it did. Looking at it 12-24 months ago might have led me to believe they could experience the type of growth, in revenues at least, of the magnitude and the time frame I mentioned. Also keep in mind, back then I may not have demanded such growth for such a length of time as I do now as it wasn't so overvalued then as it is today. I hope I understood and answered your questions well. Dave