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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (21793)	12/7/1998 3:26:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 50167

Let me answer your questions one by one-- 1- <<From reading your illuminating posts I realize that you have a solid foundation in regards to fundamental analysis. But yet you talk a lot about support and resistance levels in your trading. Do you utilize much technical analysis? I'm also wondering if you see yourself as more of a trader as opposed to a long-term investor>> I am a directional trader- I will like to determine the direction of the market and trade accordingly, in a bull trend I will not fight a trend and expect sky to fall. I think the markets are in bull trend and have been so since 90 with specific trend developing since 95. I develop my long term view based on what is the trend of the market, I remain always invested for me once you are sure of a trend you cannot remain in cash, this logic I have never been able to understand. I will develop a core portfolio of stocks like DELL CSCO MSFT INTC and will just not sell them at any cost until I am sure that we are in long term bear market. My definition of bear market is not a month of volatility or liquidation of few companies all these news trickle down to markets and markets are prized for me it has to be major indicators, so on one hand I am a pure fundamentalist on the other a pure trader, my account has been helped by consistency and coherence and my decision to stay invested in good or bad times within a bull trend I do receive a lot of criticism for that but as I have always repeatedly said core portfolio and trading are two different things we need to trade around our core and if necessary leverage the portfolio to the maximum. I am a long term investor with a computer and a prolific 'short term trader'- my SPZ points and targets will and shall remain envy of even the best. .ggggg On SOX and SPZ and NDX and Composite you name it levels like 275 1130 1575 and 1320 and many others remain a enigma and I am the only thread which relates global levels to these levels and trade,rather the only thread which has supports and targets on multiple indexes matched with major components like DOW SPZ, I trade SPOOS on back of my proprietary approach and most important I write to explain my fundamentals as to justify my direction and then highlight within a move pockets of money making opportunities. Recently, when SOX was breaking 330 I made this huge call on Korea and Taiwan and you could see that within couple of trading days of that call we are 9% higher on the calls like Japan and Europe we made good money on all these occasions, arbitrage when I see a discount in JPN index even after a good news and I see JPN sitting on 14700 I do make calls which help us a lot. This is the unique benefit of using multiple strategy of 'supports and resistance's'. I write extensively and will try to develop a frame of reasonable strategy, without strategy one gets lost. My indexes keep changing as the action in market shifts from one index to other like NDX got my maximum attention in this whole move from 1050 to 1650- 600 points and I highlighted that index as a leading money maker I think whatever DOW may do the money making opportunity was at its best with NDX, this thread exploited it to its maximum. My 1320 level was a support which I could see clearly and a bounce off that with bonds breaking at 135 remains the key through which I made hedge fund type phenomenal returns, I don't remain tied up with few things rather extensive bird's eye view gives the best of tool. naturally all this is 'poison chalice' to shorts who missed the boat completely but the fact remains that in my trading career not many a times such opportunities have come across and not many a times I have seen TA failing their masters so much. It was this alone reason that I remained all along a voice of reason on SI when every one was busy with the bear mantra. It is the combination of lethal FA mingled with very simple of TS I am great believer of MA's and trend-lines and supports and resistance rest every thing else in my opinion is non-sense, if TA could have made money the writers would do something better make money off the markets like I do, I can be a writer of a great book but opportunities in the market far outweigh the benefits from writing a book, this Idea thread of mine which I kept alive single handedly in worst of ambush is my living book, I take great pride, this is an open example of trade after trade some of which may have temporarily gone sour but we did see our levels back. You need to determine a time where you should invest and than trade off your core on the long and short side, it encourages you to trade short term as if values are falling you take it upon yourself to hedge and soften the blow and if it is rising you add on to the stocks which are flying, but the fact remains and this is the most bitter part of it you don't just miss the gold when it is their to be taken, that was on 8th Oct- and a month after that nay-sayers continued their mantra only to be decimated by the markets for me never fight the tape for me don't stand in front of a moving train for me speculative shorts are recipes of disaster, this game of death is played with ruthlessness on SI and I have remained like a solid rock dismissing most of these gurus talk as non-sense and keep showing them that by missing the boat at 1320 what is missed, it saddens me that innocent investors were misguided with mantras that bore no resemblance to realties on ground. if someone who cannot make a long equity trade when bonds were breaking on 8th Oct from 135 from all times high, no TA will ever tell you to pick the bottom at 1320 I did, it was my FA however the TA guys were not even getting out of puts they had purchased when volatility was at 80. If you now look back with benefit of hindsight two decisions helped to pin point the bottom one was bond break something now is happening I thought second and most important I kept on saying weaker $ will bring rallies in ASEA and the third the 1320 was 2 years low on composite and 1050 was NDX two year low, it is hence combination of many reads TA and FA that help makes my decision. I keep my focus of universe to stocks well known to me, stocks I know like back of my hand stocks like IBM INTC and others where I can go against every conventional wisdom and say buy at 111 this was IBM- on INTC I was a buyer at 69 same for TXN a buyer at as low as 39-- also NOK at 60 not in distant past.. I could do this because I know my universe well and I would like to deal only with stocks which I know I do have ides like IFMX and FHS PMTC but these are infrequent, I am trader of short term on day to day basis, will like to trade the market at supports and resistance's but I will keep tight stop losses I will rather loose than to let a position run overnight sometime I do that but rarely. 2-<<After looking at countless charts over the past six years I have discovered that the battle that's being waged on a daily basis between buyers and sellers offers a predictive value as to future direction of stock prices. Daily trends build into weekly trends which then turn monthly which make up the price history of the company itself. If one can say that there is short-term resistance at a certain level doesn't it make sense that the same should apply when looking at the long-term. >> I think the daily stock noise filters down what remains to be seen is the close and the high however for me I would look at the range and I keep working on developing trend-lines for targets with my range of the day tool. I would encourage 15 minute watch of the market for day trading and weekly watch for medium direction and long term view add on to it major indicators, currencies and bonds and you have a top model in you hands to trade directionally, I will once again repeat the market only respect people who have money on line if you are all cash and have no commitment to the market the market rewards are so little, it is at the worst of the times the best of the monies are made, I feel sorry that people try to do otherwise they try to make money in best of times, the run form here can be 30% higher but the risk reward is equally mind boggling it was at 1320 the point where risk reward was lowest and the returns highest, all said if the economy was being slowed and leading indicators would have indicated a huge slow down or a profit recession I would not be a buyer at 1320 so was my opinion on profit warnings, I always kept repeating stronger economy produces stronger numbers and earnings in third quarter will nail the direction of the market that exactly happened, I agree in the last that market exceeds on both sides and when it exceeds the horror or good times that is the time of reversal let the last few bugs be made by others- you should be partying now as I am after a great year and thanks to Idea where all my trades are conceived and written.