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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Warkentin who wrote (32503)	12/6/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: dealmakr	Respond to of 95453

Steve, COE Dore a seller of GLBL stock at $21, but has been a big buyer lately below $7, board of directors has $30 million stock buyback program in place from August and the last amounts bot in are available on the latest form 10. Don't know how much the funds have sold in tax season, but lots of big blocks traded. Chart from TA standpoint is very weak, but can change with a W bottom, stochastics are about as oversold as you can get. Was going to buy options a few weeks ago with stock at 7 bucks, looked at the Jun 5 calls for 3 1/4, can be had now for about 1 1/2 glad I waited. Will enter a position on them soon. Any other option players have any thoughts on this? Good Trading Dave

To: Steve Warkentin who wrote (32503)	12/6/1998 4:47:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Steve; re: GLBL and price targets in general... EPS in this sector can change dramatically. Companies like GLBL are only a contract or two; or an asset/company acquisition away for substantial moves in EPS. Costs are being cut every day. We will see some lean & mean, very efficient companies emerge from this crisis. Oil prices obviously will be the catalyst to move new projects, rig/boat utilization and capital expenditures, but PE expansion will be a prime mover in the stock prices short term here. PE's will expand on the positive future ''expectations'' of upward crude oil price momenteum and merely this shift in investor sentiment will move these stocks prior to actual increases in earnings. We've seen the huge pent up buying demand for this sector. The ''Mo-mo'' factor will be HUGE when the markets senses that crude fundamentals have finally turned. I would think that GLBL could bounce to $7-10 on ''any'' positive crude news, a share buy back, short covering and/or the end of the stream of bad Industry news we've had of late. $12-14 is a range we saw just in the Sept. highs after the end of August blowoff. So a short term double/triple is not wishfull thinking. I'm sure we'll see GLBL over $20 with $16-18 oil and I plan on holding 2-3 years minimum with a $20-25 price target as my first profit taking point. I don't think we will see $18 oil as quickly as I had previously thought, but the Industry overall is very profitable with $15/16 Oil and will shortly through consolidation, new technologies and sheer necessity; will become profitable in even a longerm $12-14 crude price enviroment. In my opinion, $15+ crude by the summer of 1999 is realistic, with $18+ crude in year 2000... Because of the terrible earnings numbers facing the Industry in 1999; the year 2000 willl give tremendous year over year gain's and crude will probably be in it's momenteum ''pocket'' at about that time with Asia targeted to be showing the benefits of it's massive stimulus package in 12-18 mos. These substantial year over year & quarter over quarter gains; in a simultaneous positive crude oil & Asian recovery enviroment, will catapult these stocks to lofty levels potentially in year 2000. This looks to be a very, very lucrative 18-24 month play here imho. With any luck and/or a few surprises; we could even see the 3rd short term 30-50-75% run up in many of these stocks, as they have been literally ''dumped'' here. We've seen 15-25% one day moves in a couple of stocks - ie: GIFI. With an end of the bad news, some positive news from OPEC, good API - EIA #'s, a move in crude and the accompanying short covering & the return of the tax loss sellers in January; a return to near, or at the Sept & Oct highs is not unrealistic & would be a very substantial return. Personally; I'm taking a longer term position and setting price targets of where to begin to take profits; GLBL @ $20-25, FGI @ $36-$40, RON @ $52-60, WFT @ $ 48 - 50, RIG @ $50-54, VTS @ $ 48+, VRC @ $ 30+, FLC @ $30-36 etc. These are basically the median prices these companies saw last April-June with just historically normal PE valuations. Many companies have greater earnings capacity now through asset acquisitions and or cost cutting. Personally by selling only 1/2 of my holdings at those price targets; I not only profit, but also will be holding my remaining shares on a ''cost free'' basis (having covered all costs will the initial sales)... Very few times does the market so severly decimate an entire Industry sector. Unbelieveably, many, many companies are still very, very profitable here ! With these prices and PE's; one would think that everyone was on the brink of Bankruptcy and huge losses... Patience, and the mere return to equilibrium in Crude's supply/demand relationship is all that is needed to achieve what will be quite unbelieveable returns over the next year or two. With the historic Internationally coordinated rate cuts & stimulus packages; it's only a matter of when, not if... The only bet here imho; is the possibility of longterm ''deadmoney.'' I don't see that at all. Not with the Internationally coordinated liquidity/stimulus packages. PS Sarge; yes - I love FGI @ $11 here as well. I just like the more service oriented companies better than the manufacturing companies. I think pipeline work (especially nat gas) and repair work may be more resilient in a prolonged low crude price enviroment than manufacturing (especially high $ Rig/fab companies). However FGI has a solid backlog and keeps getting contracts. Gotta give them credit, as they certainly appear to be emerging as ''the'' contractor of choice from where I sit... (comments from the ''inside'' Big Dog ?). VRC is acting very good here, RON WFT RIG are literal gifts, VTS, PGO CXIPY SCSWF CLB CDIS are way oversold and all have great Earnings upside and are niche/technology leaders. DRQ NOI IIR GIFI KEG PDE MRL DO NE RDC ESV soooo cheap. So many buys, so little money & so little time ... good luck