Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (2032)	12/8/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: Yamakita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

Thanks for posting your results John. I'm glad my TERA made the list . . . . Do you see any there that especially pique your interest?

To: Q. who wrote (2032)	12/9/1998 12:09:00 AM
From: pcyhuang	Respond to of 2506

Hi, Professor John G: Your screen for low-beat stocks is very interesting. May I introduce to a thread at this site specializing in the discussion of using computer screens to buy investment candidates, both on the long and the short side. I have personally used very extensively the Market Guide data base and the Microsoft Investors' data base. I have that the latter to be well worth its $9.00 per month charge. Subject 23475 best rgds, pcyhuang

To: Q. who wrote (2032)	1/4/1999 11:33:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

Here are performance results for the low RS/neg cashflow screen that I've been posting monthly. Positive numbers mean the stocks went up, i.e., more negative numbers are better for shortselling. What is desired here is a more negative performance compared to the Russell 2000. screen elapsed time performance Russell 2000 difference * 12 -42 % - 3 % -29 % * 11 -38 % - 2 % -36 % * 10 -39 % - 9 % -30 % * 9 -31 % -13 % -18 % * 8 -21 % -13 % - 8 % 6/10/98 7 mos. -36 % - 7 % -29 % * 6 -23 % - 8 % -15 % * 5 -20 % + 2 % -22 % * 4 +27 % + 21 % + 6 % 10/7/98 3 mos. +12 % + 27 % -12 % 11/4/98 2 mos. +22 % + 8 % +14 % 12/8/98 1 mo. +11 % + 5 % + 6 % * date shown with asterisk are based on Telescan's backtesting today, which should be the same as the results I would have gotten if I had recorded the data on the date shown. Recall that small cap stocks had a peak April 21 a low Oct. 8 98 It looks as if this screen tends to produce a high beta portfolio, maybe because the stocks tend to be lower priced stocks than those in the Russell 2000. Whether the RUT is up or down, the screen does the same thing, but harder. I think that the 1 mo. results are too early to be meaningful. Bottom line: Over the test period shown here, it looks like the screen in general underperforms the RUT, as desired.

To: Q. who wrote (2032)	1/4/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 2506

Here are the stocks for the Jan. 99 low RS / neg cash flow screen. I did this screen on jan. 4 I don't recommend shorting any of these stocks this month, due to the January effect. The top 25 stocks were as follows, listed with the lowest 18-week RS first: vphm,cvol,aim,atrx,rmag,wwtr,snus,gtax,synm,heb,wrdp,matk,wstl,crai,skyc,hsr,tera,thor,axti,diys,dmi,mmp click the link below to see yahoo's detailed report on all 25 stocks: quote.yahoo.com =====================================Boiler plate info: ============ How the scan was done: I used Telescan's Prosearch, available on the web (for a subscription) at tscn.com Search components were: shortability: price > $5 30 day ave vol > 5 k small cap: $20 M < market cap < $200 M low RS: rel performance 18 weeks : low as possible eliminate value stocks: p/b > 3 p/s > 2 free cash flow < 0 cash/price ratio : low as possible I optimized the above parameters in May and June 1998, which was soon after a small cap market peak, by backtesting the results (I played with the p/s, p/b ratios, the time span for the low RS, etc.) and this is the set of parameters that did the best over the previous 3-6 months. The returns from this screen are probably best over a 3+ month holding period. I don't recommend shorting any of the stocks produced by this screen. This list is intended only to encourage further research.

To: Q. who wrote (2032)	3/21/1999 7:26:00 PM
From: s berg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

John, Do you know what telescan means by low as possible. Is it some specific low percentile or are they screening all the low as possible variables against low absolute values for each variable. Thanks. How the scan was done:I used Telescan's Prosearch, available on the web (for a subscription) at tscn.com Search components were: shortability: price > $5 30 day ave vol > 5 k small cap: $20 M < market cap < $200 M low RS: rel performance 18 weeks : low as possible eliminate value stocks: p/b > 3 p/s > 2 free cash flow < 0 cash/price ratio : low as possible I optimized the above parameters in May and June 1998, which was soon after a small cap market peak, by backtesting the results (I played with the p/s, p/b ratios, the time span for the low RS, etc.) and this is the set of parameters that did the best over the previous 3-6 months. The returns from this screen are probably best over a 3+ month holding period. I don't recommend shorting any of the stocks produced by this screen. This list is intended only to encourage further research.