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Technology Stocks : OnSale Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hoyasaxa who wrote (2409)	12/8/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4903

I like ONSL because on a price to sales basis it appears to be a compelling buy (compared to similar companies). That said, I have a very small position and would very much like the stock to take a dramatic hit -- so I could buy more. I have a buy order in at 32. As do a number of others whom I know quite well. FWIW, I also very much like EBAY and believe the market is big enough for several person to person online auction powerhouses. If short in either, I suggest you be very careful. JMO

To: hoyasaxa who wrote (2409)	12/8/1998 4:18:00 PM
From: Oliver & Co	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4903

ONSALE 8,918,400 BIDS AND RUNNING. IT ONLY NEEDS ABOUT 81,000 TO GET TO 9 MILLION. AT THE RATE IT IS GOING IT SHOUD BE THERE BY THURSDAY THE LATEST. THEN A PRESS RELEASE "SHOULD" MOST LIKELY BE RELEASED. HOWEVER, IF YOU LOOK AT HOW THE NUMBERS ARE MOVING, THEY EXCEED 1,000/HR.

To: hoyasaxa who wrote (2409)	12/8/1998 10:34:00 PM
From: James H. Irwin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4903

JG: some of us may not be saying EBAY is a superior site, but maybe the valuation is a bit out of whack! See my post of Nov 11 to the following and do your own DD (due diligence!): (my comments on ONSL are about 2/3rds down the page...and as usual to all...bon chance! OH YEAH...the Beajolais Nouveau est ariveé!) << re: buyout of EGGS by AMZN <<LOL!!! a buyout by AMZN???? Get real think about what your saying... >> Actally, I mentioned that idea about 4 weeks ago to an investment banker friend of mine who works for a research boutique in San Francisco. With AMZN's stock as overvalued currency, easy fit, EGGS installed customer base, etc., if you take out the 2.75 in cash, pay 4.0 times their revenue base...which going forward will certainly grow fast: 6 months revenues = 64Million, and this is trailing, hence understated moving forward, 12 months = 128 Million x 4 = 512 million/24.3M shares = 21 bucks a share, less the 2.75 = buying EGGS for 18.25 net after cash. But if the company waits 9 months and gets their revenue base built up, its certainly conceivable you could see a stock price north of $20...but you gotta let the water boil, and quit lifting the lid...it all depends on your time frame. If your a banker, that is your job...to find additive acquisition...I'm sure somebody somewhere has called with this idea...or maybe I need to get back in the business...but then I would miss out on all this fun:-) Another way to look at it is to take that 128Million in revs, divide that into 24.3M shares x $10.25 = $250Min market cap = 1.94 times revs, when you take out the $2.75 in cash So if AMZN with 50 million shares at 126 = 6.3 billion in market cap for trailing 9 months revenues of 356 million, annualize that for 475Million: 6.3B/475M = 13.25x revs Equates to 5.3 times the valuation Not hard to figure out how this could be very additive for AMZN...software, SurplusAuction.com, installed base, all the charges have been taken for brick and mortar liquidation. Calmer heads will prevail and see relative value...just don't know when or if the other guys close the valuation by coming in in price.... BTW the above is quickly on the back of an envelope. for another comp: EBAY: 39.74 million shares x $116 a share = 4.6billion. last 3 quarters revs = 5.9M + 8.9M + 12.9M = 27.7M, annualized = call it 37M...in revenues for 4.6Billion. As Austin Powers said best: "throw me a fricken bone here!" ONSL: 18.9 M shares x 23.25 = 439M Market Cap, last 9 months revs: 40.1+50.8+57.8=148.7M, annualized = 198M in revenues, roughly 2.2 times The above data is from Market Guide on TrackData, and doesn't take margins into consideration. Do the math. and as always...bon chance>>