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Gold/Mining/Energy : Tenke Mining Corp (TNK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greywolf who wrote (304)	12/9/1998 5:39:00 AM
From: Gunnar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 486

Ed Marek seems to have change view from neutral to hostile versus the Rwanda/Uganda/Tutsi/l'encien regime-coalition. There have been some thoughts about the Kabilian so called Maginot line in the south and Southwest. Now let's see if there are any of the same kind on the aggressors side... Look for the outcome of the strikes against UNITA in Angola and the moves of the backers of R/U. We all remembered the S African initiative of "peace talks" when Rwanda were in the suburbs of Kinshasa. Now it seems a long way down to Lubumbashi. R/U holds/have past through the dens rain forest to the border of areas where there is more people. Now let's see. It is of most importance that France, Belgium and other democratic forces play a positive card in this play. It would be a mistake to let the alliance consist of post feudal/communists forces. That would not be a victory in the long run. A free DRC needs 1. A strong central government elected by the people. 2. Regional and local administration that have their legitimacy from the people. 3. A military force that have the supreme right to use violence. 4. One law. 5. Safe borders. It seems that one of the main keys of reaching these goals is to let foreign Co run their business under these laws and slowly create some liberal market islands interacting with the surrounding community. The after war payment of more or less open debts will surely not make this road an easy one, but this is the way that will make domestic growth possible because of new infrastructure, safe ways of getting capital etc that can lay a solid ground for long-term development. The resent crises in the international financing system show the impact a disturbance in these systems has on economic growth. The Tenke project is of tremendous importance as an example for the whole investor community, and the Great Lake region. Let's wait. Those that can afford waiting will come out of these crises as a winner. Remember that there can be a solution that is implemented 6 month from now about the border situation in the east. But the longer the war remains the greater the risk that it will spread to Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania. When the backers of R/U accept the fact that they cannot win they have to deal with the short and long term risk of what they might loose on a prolonged war in the DRC. The development on the battle field may take a surprising path the weeks to come. The tanks from Uganda wont be used in the South but the Zimbabwean / Angolan aircraft will. If the political forces do have some influence on the military situation there could be an interesting situation where not just the fact that the one that seems to be in the best position on the battle field but the one that is the best postwar alternative wins the support of the people and the war. Let's integrate the future in the solution. As oil prices is low, I can't let the toughts about the halted ARP go away when I deal with the problems concerning waiting. Hopfully I'm right. Regards, Gunnar