Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce A. Bowman who wrote (6394)	12/11/1998 7:13:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Bruce, The problem with my personal cash reserve is that I've made many small trades, but overall there's still several stocks that have not participated in the SELL side of this rally. Net worth is back to about break - even for the year. Cash Reserve has risen nicely considering that its low was 5% of a smaller number and it's now about 9% of a much greater number. November brought on another 9% increase in my personal account's total value. Back to back, October and November were probably a couple of the best months I've had (but we have to remember that the pendulum was pretty far out on the BEAR side at the start). Stocks like VLSI and IDTI have only returned nominal amounts of Cash Reserve to date. They are up substantially from their lows, but are now just starting to participate in the FUN side of AIM. I have many other stocks that fall into this arena. MXF is in the recovery mode, but I've only managed one 100 share trade there so far. All in all, I need the market prices of my stocks stuck in the HOLD ZONE to rise a bit more to trigger some selling. VLSI tripped its first Sell trade so far at $13 the other day. My cheapest AIM buy was at $7-9/16, I believe. Good news is that it's way up from its lows - bad news is that it is strapped for cash still. I think that after the Tax Balancing Act is over for the year, some of these smaller cap stocks will start to blossom. I'm anxious for the next harvest to begin!! Brest regards, Tom

To: Bruce A. Bowman who wrote (6394)	12/11/1998 7:40:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Bruce, The internet stocks are almost a splinter of a sector! :-) Hardly any room to maneuver. If AIQ would identify such a small segment of the capital markets as a bubble in an otherwise normal market, that would certainly be of value. One AIMer I know took a quick "vacation" from AIM to trade Egghead. He bought at $18+ for a quick turn and watched it take off to the happy side of $40. He then got caught as the price collapsed. He couldn't get through to Waterhouse by computer or phone very quickly and by the time his Sell order was placed and executed he got about $25+ for the shares. Now here's the difference between an optimist and a pessimist! Should he be happy about the 33% gain he made in a quick trade or crushed by the "loss" of not getting the shares sold at more than 100% gain? I asked if AIM could have done better. He stated that AIM wouldn't have had a chance to get going since all this happened in just 3 days! I guess I'd take a 33% gain in three days and be pretty happy! What's that annualized????!!!! Wouldn't it be nice if all our "vacations" were as profitable? Best regards, Tom

To: Bruce A. Bowman who wrote (6394)	12/11/1998 8:04:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

From: Jim Battaglia Good Morning Tom!! Hope you are well. I noticed that there seems to be a divergence in your wave cash amounts and my TVR. In the years we have been discussing this, I have never seen this. If I am correct, you are at 22% and my TVR (altho jumps quicker) than yours is at 30%. Have a great Christmas!!! Have you gotten any snow yet? Our weather in Virginia has been absolutely beautiful.... Have a good day: Jim ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi Jim, Thanks for the note. It's interesting that your TVR has risen so quickly. With the moving averages built into the IW, it's slower to respond. It has risen from 19% to 22% in the last four weeks. Also note this week that the IW Oscillator indicates rising risk with a reading of +10. If we factor the "10" by the same factor that I use for getting the IW reading for mutual funds and then add it to the current value, the reading would be 28.67%. That's quite a bit closer to your TVR value! The IW Oscillator is the difference between the components without the moving averages and with them. I use a 1.5 divisor to change the IW into the IW for mutual funds, so taking the 10 divided the same way gives a 6.67 value. So, if the IW wasn't so poky, it, too would be quite a bit higher. Risk is rising rapidly again, but is still reasonable. 26.67% is the "average" value for the mutual fund IW reading since 1982. When risk is steadier, then my IW starts to line out closer to the TVR. With the rapid drop and then rise in the market, I don't think the IW has quite caught up!! Best regards, Tom PS: We could almost use the difference between the IW fund reading and your TVR as an Oscillator or Direction Indicator!